基于IPAT模型的河北省灰水足迹分析及预测

发布时间：2018-06-24 03:32

本文选题：灰水足迹 + 京津冀IPAT模型　；参考：《水利水电技术》2017年11期

【摘要】：河北作为京津冀发展圈的重要组成部分,水质水量问题突出,因此迫切需要对其水量和水质进行研究。基于农业和工业生活两部分,选取N肥、P肥、COD为关键污染物,以水环境最大允许容量为依据,计算了河北省2004—2015年的灰水足迹,并以此为基础,对2030年单位产值造成的灰水足迹进行了预测。结果表明:(1)12年间河北省灰水足迹呈现先上升再下降的趋势,农业灰水足迹以N肥为最关键污染物,随着化肥总量和平均施肥水平的增加不断增长,年均增长率0.87%;(2)工业生活灰水足迹总体呈现增长趋势,阶段内呈现下降趋势。以2011年为界,河北省灰水足迹从由农业灰水足迹决定转变为由工业生活灰水足迹决定,且工业生活灰水足迹和第三产业产值的相关性较强;(3)通过IPAT模型分析发现,农业灰水足迹除2004,2013,2015年外,其他各年份可持续性均较差,2004—2010年工业生活灰水足迹的可持续性好于2011—2015年。未来若按照现有水平继续发展,到2030年河北省单位农业产值造成的灰水足迹将下降为0.05 m~3/元,单位工业生活产值造成的灰水足迹将下降为0.006 m~3/元。
[Abstract]:As an important part of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei development circle, the problem of water quality and quantity is prominent, so it is urgent to study the quantity and quality of Hebei. Based on two parts of agricultural and industrial life, this paper selected N fertilizer, P fertilizer and COD as the key pollutant and calculated the ash water footprint of Hebei Province from 2004 to 2015 on the basis of the maximum allowable capacity of water environment. The grey water footprint caused by the unit output value in 2030 is forecasted. The results showed that: (1) during the past 12 years, the ash water footprint of Hebei Province increased first and then decreased, and N fertilizer was the most important pollutant in agriculture, and with the increase of the total amount of fertilizer and the average level of fertilizer, the total amount of fertilizer and the average fertilizer level increased continuously. The average annual growth rate was 0.87. (2) the industrial life ash water footprint showed an increasing trend in general and a downward trend in the period. In 2011, the ash water footprint of Hebei Province changed from the agricultural ash water footprint to the industrial life ash water footprint, and the correlation between the industrial ash water footprint and the tertiary industry output value was strong. (3) through the analysis of IPAT model, it was found that, With the exception of 2004 / 2013 and 2015, the sustainability of agricultural ash water footprint in other years is worse than that in industrial life in 2004-2010 is better than that in 2011-2015. In the future, if we continue to develop according to the present level, by 2030, the ash water footprint caused by the unit agricultural output value of Hebei Province will be reduced to 0.05mt / Yuan, and the ash water footprint caused by the unit industrial life output value will be reduced to 0.006 mm3 / yuan.
【作者单位】：中国水利水电科学研究院;安阳市河道管理处;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41401648,71573274) 国家重点研发计划课题(2016YFC0401408,2016YFC0503502)
【分类号】：TV213.4

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