新疆山区中小河流洪水预报模型及其应用

发布时间：2018-06-24 05:31

本文选题：中小河流 + 融雪径流模型　；参考：《干旱区研究》2017年06期

【摘要】：我国中小河流防洪标准普遍偏低,突发性洪水频繁,洪灾损失极为严重。选取新疆山区金沟河和奎屯河,通过MODIS遥感数据提取流域积雪覆盖率,并结合气象台站数据,基于SRM融雪径流模型、逐步多元回归模型和最近邻抽样模型,对流域进行径流模拟。结果显示:3种模型均能很好的模拟金沟河与奎屯河流域的径流过程,率定期与检验期Nash效率系数均达到0.7以上,且3种模型各有优缺点,说明融雪径流模型、逐步多元回归模型与最近邻抽样模型能够应用于金沟河与奎屯河流域的洪水预报,对新疆山区中小河流域防洪预警具有一定的指导意义。
[Abstract]:The flood control standard of middle and small rivers in China is generally low, the sudden flood is frequent, and the flood damage is very serious. This paper selects Jingou River and Kuitun River in Xinjiang mountainous area to extract the snow cover rate through MODIS remote sensing data, and combines meteorological station data, based on SRM snowmelt runoff model, stepwise multivariate regression model and nearest neighbor sampling model. The runoff simulation of the river basin is carried out. The results show that the runoff process of Jingou River and Kuitun River basin can be well simulated by the three kinds of models, and the Nash efficiency coefficients of regular rate and inspection period are above 0.7, and each of the three models has its own advantages and disadvantages, which shows that the snowmelt runoff model can be used to simulate the runoff process of Jingou River and Kuitun River. The stepwise multivariate regression model and the nearest neighbor sampling model can be applied to the flood forecasting of Jingou River and Kuitun River basin, and have certain guiding significance to the flood control early warning of the middle and small river basins in Xinjiang mountainous area.
【作者单位】：武汉大学水资源与水电工程国家重点实验室;水资源安全保障湖北省协同创新中心;吉林省电力勘测设计院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51339004,51279139)共同资助
【分类号】：P338

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