天津市再生水利用及其环境经济影响的动态模拟研究

发布时间：2018-06-26 04:27

本文选题：再生水利用 + 动态最优化模拟　；参考：《中国地质大学（北京）》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：随着我国社会经济的迅速发展，水资源短缺和水污染渐渐成为制约未来发展的重要问题，天津市则是水环境问题严重的典型地区。为了缓解天津市水环境约束、保障经济增长和人口增加的水资源需求，再生水的循环利用是最有效的解决途径。然而目前天津市再生水利用工程尚处起步阶段，还有很大的发展潜力。这使得再生水合理利用方案及其环境经济综合影响评价的研究具有重要的现实意义。本研究正是基于以上现实问题，从区域水环境管理的角度，，对天津市再生水的利用潜力进行预测，以找出最优的再生水利用方案；并评价最优方案下再生水利用对于环境保护和社会经济发展的贡献。研究方法采用动态建模和模拟实验的方式，构建综合社会经济和环境综合模型，并采用LINGO编程软件来实现模拟。研究所构建的综合水资源-环境-经济综合评价模型，包括三大子模型：水循环模型，污染物质流动模型和社会经济模型。该模型是“自上而下”的宏观环境经济评价模型（以投入产出模型为基础）与“自下而上”技术评价模型的有机结合，并首次将水资源循环系统引入模型以内生反映再生水的利用潜力。综合评价模型的目标是在水环境改善的基础上，实现经济最大化发展；以2010-2020年为实验期（利于比较模拟结果与现实数据验证模型可信度），对天津市的经济发展、水环境进行预测和分析。通过模拟实验结果以及分析表明，在引入5种污水处理和再生水生产技术之后，结合综合政策的导入，2020年天津市再生水的重复利用率可达到56%，污水处理率亦可达到98%。再生水的利用将有效减缓天津市水资源短缺的问题，替代22%的总用水量，并且有效减少15%水污染物质排放量（较2009年）。此外，还能保障经济以年均6.45%的增速发展，保证社会经济可持续发展。另外，模拟实验也可以提供了天津市各区域的具体发展计划，包括再生水利用的财政需求、厂址选择、以及产业发展计划。研究将为天津市合理利用再生水提供科学的政策方案和可行的措施，也将为水资源管理等提供新的研究思路。研究的创新在于研究方法上改进了水资源-水环境-社会经济系统模型，增了水循环内生机制和综合系统的研究模式。动态模型模拟也为水资源环境管理提供了新的研究视角，研究将为天津市合理利用再生水提供科学的政策建议和具体的可行措施，同时也将为水管理等研究提供新的研究思路和方法。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of social economy in China, water shortage and water pollution gradually become an important problem restricting the future development. Tianjin is a typical region with serious water environment problems. In order to ease the restriction of water environment in Tianjin and ensure the demand of water resources for economic growth and population increase, recycling of reclaimed water is the most effective way to solve this problem. However, Tianjin Recycling Water Utilization Project is still in its infancy and has great development potential. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the rational utilization of reclaimed water and its comprehensive environmental and economic impact assessment. This study is based on the above practical problems, from the point of view of regional water environment management, to predict the utilization potential of reclaimed water in Tianjin, in order to find out the best recycling water utilization plan; The contribution of reclaimed water utilization to environmental protection and social and economic development was evaluated. In this paper, dynamic modeling and simulation experiments are used to construct a comprehensive model of social economy and environment, and the lingo programming software is used to realize the simulation. The comprehensive evaluation model of integrated water resources, environment and economy, which includes three sub-models: water cycle model, pollutant flow model and socio-economic model, is constructed. This model is an organic combination of "top-down" macro-environmental economic evaluation model (based on input-output model) and "bottom-up" technology evaluation model. The recycling system of water resources is introduced into the model for the first time to reflect the potential of reclaimed water utilization. The objective of the comprehensive evaluation model is to maximize the economic development on the basis of the improvement of the water environment, and to take 2010-2020 as the experimental period (which is conducive to comparing the simulation results and the credibility of the real data validation model) to the economic development of Tianjin. The water environment is predicted and analyzed. The results of simulation experiments and analysis show that after introducing five kinds of wastewater treatment and reclaimed water production technology, combined with the introduction of comprehensive policy, the reuse efficiency of reclaimed water in Tianjin can reach 566.The sewage treatment rate can also reach 98g in 2020. The utilization of reclaimed water will effectively alleviate the shortage of water resources in Tianjin, replace 22% of the total water consumption, and effectively reduce the discharge of water pollution by 15% (compared with 2009). In addition, the economy can be guaranteed to grow at an average annual rate of 6.45% and to ensure sustainable social and economic development. In addition, the simulation experiment can also provide specific development plans for each region of Tianjin, including the financial demand for the utilization of recycled water, site selection, and industrial development plan. The research will provide a scientific policy scheme and feasible measures for the rational utilization of reclaimed water in Tianjin, and will also provide a new research idea for the management of water resources. The innovation of the research lies in improving the model of water resources, water environment and social economy system, increasing the endogenous mechanism of water cycle and the research mode of integrated system. Dynamic model simulation also provides a new research perspective for water resources environmental management. The research will provide scientific policy suggestions and concrete feasible measures for rational utilization of reclaimed water in Tianjin. At the same time, it will provide new research ideas and methods for water management.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学（北京）
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV213.9;F127

【参考文献】