应对径流变异的汉江上游梯级水库调度研究

发布时间：2018-06-30 20:59

本文选题：径流变异 + 汉江上游流域　；参考：《西安理工大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：水库调度规则是基于水库设计阶段的水文资料序列模拟计算获得的,由于全球气候变化和人类活动影响,流域下垫面条件发生变化,径流系列发生了变异。水库设计阶段制定的调度规则已不适用于新的水文序列,因此,为应对径流变异对水库调度的影响,研究新水文序列下的水库调度规则十分必要。本文针对汉江上游石泉-喜河-安康梯级水库,研究了应对径流规律改变后梯级水库的调度规则。论文主要研究内容及研究成果如下:(1)分析了汉江上游径流规律,利用小波分析得出石泉入库径流具有6年和23年的周期,安康入库径流具有7年、17年和26年的周期;通过Kendall秩次检验法得出石泉、安康径流呈递减趋势;运用R/S分析法得出石泉、安康径流序列具有持续性。(2)对汉江上游径流过程进行了变异诊断,运用滑动t检验法、山本法、Mann-Kendall法、Pettitt法、有序聚类分析法、西沃兹信息准则法等综合分析得出,汉江上游径流序列在1990年出现突变点。变异后流域年径流量减少,减少时段主要集中在汛期。变异后5～10月,石泉、安康水库入库径流分别减少39.20%和30.80%,年内占比分别由80.94%和80.32%下降至77.25%和77.45%。趋势性则由不显著递增转变为不显著递减。(3)利用石泉、安康水库原始调度图模拟调度汉江上游梯级水库,得出1954年～1990年石泉、喜河、安康多年平均发电量分别为7.59、6.06及25.10亿kW·h; 1990年～2005年石泉、喜河、安康多年平均发电量分别为5.66、4.57及18.35亿kW-h。(4)制定了径流规律变化后的改进水库调度图。采用等出力方法得到新调度图并运用其进行模拟调度,得到石泉、喜河、安康水电站多年平均发电量分别为5.69、4.57和18.46亿kW·h,新调度图相对原调度图可提高梯级水库的发电效益。(5)制定了径流规律变化后的优化水库调度图。以变异后径流序列制定的新调度图为初始值,建立优化模型,通过模拟遗传混合算法得到汉江上游梯级水库联合优化调度图,并运用其进行模拟调度,石泉、喜河、安康水电站多年平均发电量分别为5.83、4.62和18.59亿kW·h,可进一步提高梯级水库发电效益。
[Abstract]:The regulation of reservoir operation is based on the simulation of hydrological data in the reservoir design stage. Because of global climate change and human activities, the underlying surface conditions of the basin have changed and the runoff series have changed. In order to deal with the influence of runoff variation on reservoir operation, it is necessary to study the reservoir operation rules under the new hydrological sequence. Aiming at the Shi Quan-Xi-Ankang cascade reservoirs in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River, the regulation of cascade reservoirs after the change of runoff rules is studied in this paper. The main research contents and results are as follows: (1) the regularity of runoff in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River is analyzed. The results of wavelet analysis show that the period of Shi Quan inflow is 6 years and 23 years, and the period of Ankang inflow is 7 years, 17 years and 26 years. By using Kendall rank test method, Shi Quan and Ankang runoff are found to be decreasing, and Shi Quan and Ankang runoff series are obtained by R- / S method. (2) the variation diagnosis of runoff process in the upper reaches of Hanjiang River is carried out, and the sliding t test method is used. The Mann-Kendall method, Pettitt method, ordered cluster analysis method and Sivoz information criterion method show that the runoff sequence in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River appeared abrupt point in 1990. After variation, the annual runoff decreased, and the decrease period was mainly concentrated in flood season. During the period from May to October, the runoff of Shi Quan and Ankang reservoir decreased by 39.20% and 30.80%, respectively, and the percentage of runoff decreased from 80.94% and 80.32% to 77.25% and 77.45% respectively. (3) by using Shi Quan, the original dispatching diagram of Ankang Reservoir is used to simulate the operation of cascade reservoirs in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River, and it is concluded that from 1954 to 1990, the Shi Quan, the Xi River, were obtained. The average annual power generation of Ankang is 7.59 kW / h and 2.51 billion kW / h respectively, and that of Shi Quan, Xihe and Ankang from 1990 to 2005 is 5.6kW / h and 1.835 billion kW / h respectively. (4) the improved reservoir operation map has been drawn up after the change of runoff regularity. The new scheduling diagram is obtained by using the equal force method and simulated scheduling is carried out by using it. The Shi Quan and Xihe River are obtained. The annual average power generation of Ankang Hydropower Station is 5.69 ~ 4.57 and 1.846 billion kW / h respectively. Compared with the original operation chart, the new dispatching chart can improve the power generation benefit of cascade reservoirs. (5) the optimized reservoir operation diagram after the change of runoff law is made. Based on the new regulation chart of the runoff sequence after variation as initial value, the optimization model is established, and the joint optimal dispatching diagram of cascade reservoirs in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River is obtained by simulated genetic hybrid algorithm, and is used to simulate the operation, Shi Quan, Xihe, Xihe, Xihe, Xihe, Xihe, Xihe, Xihe. The annual average power generation of Ankang Hydropower Station is 5.83 KW 4.62 and 1.859 billion kW / h respectively, which can further improve the power generation efficiency of cascade reservoirs.
【学位授予单位】：西安理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TV697.1

【参考文献】