黄龙滩水库洪水预报模型与应用研究

发布时间：2018-07-02 08:20

本文选题：黄龙滩水库 + HEC-HMS模型　；参考：《华北电力大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：黄龙滩水库的洪水预报一般采用新安江模型,其他模型较为少见。鉴此,本文选取3种不同机理的水文模型(分散式概念性水文模型——新安江三水源模型、集总式概念性水文模型——NAM模型、分布式水文物理模型——HEC-HMS模型),并尝试将其应用于黄龙滩水库洪水预报中。首先,结合国内外已有研究,对3种水文模型的原理、产汇流机制以及各个模型的运行环境进行分析；其次,以各模型原理为基础,输入模型驱动数据及主要参数,确定模拟过程中的计算方法,建立数学模型；最后,分别利用9场率定期和7场验证期洪水对各模型进行参数率定及验证,采用Nash系数和相关系数作为精度评定指标,并对模拟结果进行对比分析。结果表明,新安江模型模拟效果较好,HEC-HMS模型次之,NAM模型最低。但各模型在率定期和验证期内的平均Nash系数和平均相关系数均满足精度要求,即在诸河流域的适用性都较好。以上研究对3种水文模型在诸河流域的适用性进行了验证,为黄龙滩水库洪水预报技术的研究拓展了方向。
[Abstract]:The Xinanjiang model is generally used in flood forecasting of Huanglongtan Reservoir, while other models are rare. In this paper, three hydrological models with different mechanisms (decentralized conceptual hydrological model, Xinanjiang three water source model, lumped conceptual hydrological model, NAM model) are selected in this paper. The distributed hydrophysical model, HEC-HMS model, is applied to the flood forecast of Huanglongtan Reservoir. Firstly, the principle of three hydrological models, the mechanism of production and confluence and the operating environment of each model are analyzed, and the driving data and main parameters of each model are input based on the principle of each model. Finally, the parameters of each model are determined and verified by 9 periodic and 7 flood periods respectively, and Nash coefficient and correlation coefficient are used as precision evaluation indexes. The simulation results are compared and analyzed. The results show that Xinanjiang model has better simulation effect than HEC-HMS model and NAM model is the lowest. However, the average Nash coefficients and average correlation coefficients of each model meet the precision requirements in the periodic rate period and the verification period, that is, the applicability of the models in the river basins is good. The above studies verify the applicability of the three hydrological models in the river basins and expand the research direction of flood forecasting techniques for Huanglongtan Reservoir.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV122;P338

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