丹江口水库中长期径流预报及水质水量联合模拟技术

发布时间：2018-07-03 06:59

本文选题：丹江口水库 + 中长期径流预报　；参考：《中国水利水电科学研究院》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：丹江口水库作为南水北调中线工程的水源地,其重要性可想而知,水库中的水资源承担了北京、天津、河北、河南这四个省市的用水需求。所以其水质状况便是关乎民生的重中之重,必须时刻确保水库中的水质安全。我国水污染问题是影响当前国家水安全的一个重要因素。所以为了更好的了解和把握其水动力学及水质情况,本文首先对水质模型的国内外研究进展进行了介绍,又对丹江口水库的自然地理情况(包括气候、植被、土壤等)、暴雨特性、洪水特性、径流特性以及目前所存在的水质水环境问题做出了阐述。并且对丹江口水库使用多种方法进行了中长期的径流预报,对预报结果进行分析评价。之后本文基于EFDC模型对丹江口水库建立数值模拟模型,并用2012年的数据来模拟水动力学和水质,分别模拟了水位、水温、叶绿素a、藻类、总氮以及总磷,并用实测与模拟对比分析。其中水位模拟与实测值对比的误差仅为38cm,效果比较好。由于丹江口水库是大型水库,所以对于水温的模拟要把握好水温分层的现象,尤其在夏季最为明显,秋季会出现垂直方向的掺混作用,分层现象会因此减弱,到了冬季水体分层现象消失。水质模拟时本文选用了叶绿素a、藻类、总氮、总磷这三个常用指标进行研究。丹江口水库的富营养化程度较高,P成为藻类生长的限制性因素,可采取措施控制丹江口水库总磷浓度来限制藻类生长。叶绿素a浓度的变化趋势和总氮相反,当总氮浓度升高时,叶绿素a浓度降低,反之亦然。最后简要介绍了基于EFDC模型自主开发的丹江口水库三维水动力学和水质模型系统,并以丹江口水库库区为例进行建模及演示。
[Abstract]:Danjiangkou Reservoir, as the water source of the South-to-North Water transfer Project, its importance can be imagined that the water resources in the reservoir bear the water demand of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and Henan provinces and cities. Therefore, its water quality is the most important issue for people's livelihood. It must always ensure the safety of water quality in reservoirs. Water pollution is an important factor affecting the water safety of our country. Therefore, in order to better understand and grasp its hydrodynamics and water quality, this paper first introduces the research progress of water quality model at home and abroad, and then introduces the natural geographical situation of Danjiangkou Reservoir (including climate, vegetation, vegetation). The characteristics of rainstorm, flood, runoff and the existing problems of water quality and water environment are discussed. The middle and long term runoff forecast of Danjiangkou reservoir is carried out with various methods, and the forecast results are analyzed and evaluated. Then, based on the EFDC model, a numerical simulation model of Danjiangkou reservoir was established, and the hydrodynamics and water quality were simulated with the data of 2012. The water level, water temperature, chlorophyll a, algae, total nitrogen and total phosphorus were simulated, respectively. The experiment and simulation are compared and analyzed. The error of comparison between the simulated and measured water level is only 38 cm, and the effect is good. As the Danjiangkou reservoir is a large reservoir, the simulation of water temperature should grasp the phenomenon of water temperature stratification, especially in summer, the vertical mixing will occur in autumn, and the stratification phenomenon will be weakened. The phenomenon of water stratification disappeared in winter. Chlorophyll a, algae, total nitrogen and total phosphorus were used in water quality simulation. The high eutrophication degree of Danjiangkou reservoir becomes the restrictive factor of algae growth. Measures can be taken to control the total phosphorus concentration of Danjiangkou reservoir to limit algae growth. The change trend of chlorophyll a concentration was opposite to that of total nitrogen. When the total nitrogen concentration increased, the chlorophyll a concentration decreased, and vice versa. In the end, the 3D hydrodynamics and water quality model system of Danjiangkou reservoir based on EFDC model is briefly introduced, and the model and demonstration of Danjiangkou reservoir area is given as an example.
【学位授予单位】：中国水利水电科学研究院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TV697.2;TV124

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