城市化对南昌市降水的影响及预测

发布时间：2018-07-03 17:33

本文选题：城市化 + 南昌市　；参考：《南昌大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来，随着经济社会的快速发展和工业化水平的提高，农村人口大规模向城市转移，工业化规模不断扩大，城市面积急剧膨胀。城市降水带来的问题在城市化快速发展的背景下变得日益突出，随之而来的城市内涝问题发生的可能性以及它带来的损失正变得越来越大。同时，城市化对城市水文效应的影响日益受到人们的关注。本文利用南昌市城区和郊区4个站点的降水资料以及相关统计年鉴的资料，分析了南昌市城、郊50年降水的变化特征，通过南昌市城、郊降水对比，研究了城市化发展对南昌市降水的作用，同时，，根据南昌市城区50多年的降水时间序列，对城区未来几年的降水进行了预测，在此基础上，得到了不同状态降水出现的重现期大小。论文主要结论如下：（1）南昌市城市化进程大体可分为三个阶段：第一阶段是1949-1978年（起步徘徊阶段），第二阶段是1978年至2000年（稳定发展阶段），第三阶段是进入新世纪至今（快速发展阶段）。（2）相比郊区，城区年降水量与年降水天数都有一定程度的增加，增加速度有变快的趋势。尤其是最近30年来，城区年降水天数大部分年份都多于郊区。从10年时段比较城郊降水量和降水天数发现，城区无论是降水量还是降水天数都呈现出增加幅度大于郊区或者减少幅度小于郊区的趋势。近50年来，南昌市区平均降水量增速为59.96mm/10年，郊区平均降水量增速为41.21mm/10年，城市化对南昌城区降水量增加的贡献率为31.3%。南昌市区平均降水天数减少率为-1.63天/10年，郊区平均降水天数减少率为-5.38天/10年，城市化对南昌城区降水天数增加的贡献率为69.7%。（3）根据马尔可夫链，结合模糊集理论，分别对南昌城区2013年、2014年降水量进行预测，得到2013年降水量状态值为i=3（正常年），降水量预测值为1495.5mm，2014年降水量状态值为i=（5雨涝年），降水量预测值为1886.3mm。南昌城区年降水量处于干旱、偏旱、正常、偏涝、雨涝状态的重现期分别为5.49年、6.56年、2.41年、17.69年、5.15年，处于正常年的可能性最大，偏涝年出现的机会则是最小。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of economy and society and the improvement of industrialization level, the rural population has been transferred to the city on a large scale, and the scale of industrialization has been continuously expanded, and the urban area has expanded rapidly. The problems caused by urban precipitation are becoming more and more prominent under the background of rapid development of urbanization. The possibility of urban waterlogging and the loss caused by it are becoming more and more serious. At the same time, people pay more and more attention to the influence of urbanization on urban hydrological effect. Based on the precipitation data of four stations in Nanchang city and suburb and the data of relevant statistical yearbooks, this paper analyzes the variation characteristics of precipitation in Nanchang city and suburb over the past 50 years, and compares the precipitation between Nanchang city and suburb. In this paper, the effect of urbanization on precipitation in Nanchang city is studied. Based on the precipitation time series of more than 50 years in Nanchang city, the precipitation in the next few years is predicted. The recurrence period of precipitation in different states is obtained. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the process of urbanization in Nanchang can be divided into three stages: the first stage is 1949-1978 (starting and wandering stage), the second stage is 1978-2000 (stable development stage), the third stage is the third stage. Is entering the new century until now (rapid development stage). (2) compared to the suburbs, The annual precipitation and the number of days of annual precipitation in urban area are increased to some extent, and the increasing speed tends to be faster. Especially in the last 30 years, the number of days of annual precipitation in urban areas is more than that in suburbs. From the comparison of the precipitation and the number of days in the suburb in 10 years, it is found that the increase of precipitation and the number of days of precipitation in the urban area are larger than those in the suburb or the decrease is smaller than that in the suburb. In the past 50 years, the average precipitation growth rate of Nanchang urban area is 10 years 59.96mm/, the average precipitation growth rate of suburb is 41.21mm/ 10 years, and the contribution rate of urbanization to the increase of precipitation in Nanchang urban area is 31.3%. The reduction rate of average precipitation days in Nanchang urban area is -1.63 days / 10 years, and that in suburbs is -5.38 days / 10 years. The contribution rate of urbanization to the increase of precipitation days in Nanchang urban area is 69.7%. (3) according to Markov chain and fuzzy set theory, The precipitation of Nanchang urban area in 2013 and 2014 was forecasted, and the precipitation state value of 2013 was 3 (normal year), the forecast value of precipitation was 1495.5 mm, the precipitation state value of 2014 was I = (5 rain and waterlogging year), the forecast value of precipitation was 1886.3 mm. The recurrence periods of annual precipitation in Nanchang are 5.49 years, 6.56 years, 2.41 years, 17.69 years and 5.15 years respectively.
【学位授予单位】：南昌大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV125

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