济宁市用水结构分析及预测

发布时间：2018-07-05 06:50

本文选题：用水结构 + 信息熵　；参考：《水电能源科学》2017年06期

【摘要】：为了解中国北方地区的用水结构,选取济宁市为典型城市,根据2005~2014年济宁市的用水数据,运用信息熵、洛伦茨曲线和基尼系数的方法分析了济宁市用水结构变化,并利用GM(1,1)灰色模型预测了2015~2024年济宁市用水结构未来的发展趋势。结果表明,2005~2008年总用水量年均增长5%,2009~2014年总用水量年均减少2.58%,其中,农业用水所占比例最大,约为79.95%;2005~2014年济宁市用水结构的信息熵由0.643 4 nat增长到0.727 6 nat,均衡性和稳定性不断提高;按用水类型的空间分布差异性,由小到大依次为农业、生活、工业、生态;2015~2024年的预测结果与现状相似,即用水结构朝着均衡、稳定的方向发展,空间分布的差异性逐渐缩小,但仍需进一步优化。
[Abstract]:In order to understand the water use structure in northern China, Jining is selected as a typical city. According to the water use data of Jining from 2005 to 2014, the change of water use structure in Jining is analyzed by means of information entropy, Lorentz curve and Gini coefficient. The future development trend of water use structure in Jining from 2015 to 2024 is predicted by using GM (1 ~ 1) grey model. The results showed that the average annual increase of total water consumption from 2005 to 2008 was 5% and the annual average annual decrease of total water consumption was 2.58%, among which, the proportion of agricultural water consumption was the largest, which increased from 0.643 4 nat to 0.727 6 nata from 0.643 nat to 0.727 6 natures in the water structure of Jining from 2005 to 2014. The equilibrium and stability of the water consumption structure in Jining increased continuously. According to the spatial distribution differences of water use types, the prediction results of agriculture, life, industry and ecology from small to large are similar to the present situation, that is, the water use structure develops in the direction of equilibrium and stability, and the difference of spatial distribution decreases gradually. But it still needs further optimization.
【作者单位】：河海大学水文水资源学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41572210)
【分类号】：TV213.4

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