济南市河道洪水预报系统研究

发布时间：2018-07-11 14:49

本文选题：产汇流模型 + 模型集成　；参考：《山东大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着我国城市化进程不断加快以及全球气候变化加剧,城市区域突发的强降雨频发,多次引发城市洪涝灾害,城市洪涝灾害因此受到越来越多的关注。济南市南部是山区,主城区位于北部较平坦的平原,且只有小清河一条排水通道,一旦遇到强降雨,城区河道不能及时将洪水排出极易引发城市洪涝灾害,造成极其严重的生命财产损失。因此建立济南市河道洪水预报系统,提前、准确预报重点河道断面水位、流量及时发布预警信息,提前转移人员及财产从而减少城市洪涝灾害造成损失是十分必要的。本文从城市区域的产汇流特性分析等方面入手,分析了城市区域产流、地表汇流、管道汇流、河道汇流的特点,选用合适的计算方法,构建了济南市的水文水动力耦合模型,对济南市降雨径流过程进行模拟计算,并利用Visual Studio2012,结合ArcGIS Engine开发组件与数据库设计构建了集水雨情查询、预案查询、河道洪水预报等于一体的多功能济南市河道洪水预报系统。本文首先建立了能够模拟城市产汇流的数学模型。在构建城市产汇流模型时用到了三种目前常用的计算产汇流的模型,水文学模型HEC-1(计算产流及地表汇流),水动力学模型SWMM(计算管道汇流)、FLDWAV(计算河道洪水演进)。采用松散耦合的方式将水文学模型与水动力学模型进行耦合,水文学模型与水动力学模型单独进行计算,并通过接口程序将其集成起来。通过该集成模型利用ArcGIS对济南市部分区域进行水文分析提取相关信息结合其它相关资料建立济南市河道洪水预报模型。通过多场实测降雨及河道实测水文数据验证模型参数选取的合理性以及模型的可靠性。根据济南市历史雨情信息,推求出适合济南市的长历时和短历时设计降雨过程。并基于设计的降雨及历史典型降雨,利用建立的济南市河道洪水预报模型,模拟不同降雨强度下济南市降雨径流过程,计算重点河道断面各个时段的水深流量过程,建立济南市河道洪水预报预案库。从系统总体结构和功能需求出发,以Visual Studio 2012为开发工具,结合Arcgis Engine开发组件与数据库设计以建立的济南市河道洪水预报模型为核心开发济南市河道洪水预报系统,并实现了地图查看、加载,水雨情查询,河道洪水预报预案查询,河道洪水实时预报等相关功能。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of urbanization in China and the aggravation of global climate change, the urban area has received more and more attention because of the frequent sudden heavy rainfall, which has caused the urban flood disaster many times. The southern part of Jinan is a mountainous area, and the main urban area is located on a flat plain in the north, and there is only one drainage channel in the Xiaoqing River. Once there is heavy rainfall, the river in the urban area is unable to discharge the flood in time, which can easily lead to the urban flood disaster. Causing extremely serious loss of life and property. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a flood forecasting system in Jinan city, to forecast the water level of key river sections in advance and accurately, to issue early warning information on discharge, and to transfer people and property in advance so as to reduce the losses caused by urban flood disasters. In this paper, the characteristics of runoff production, surface confluence, pipeline confluence and channel confluence in urban area are analyzed, and the hydro-hydrodynamic coupling model of Jinan city is constructed by selecting appropriate calculation method. In this paper, the rainfall runoff process in Jinan is simulated and calculated. Combining with ArcGIS engine development module and database, the multi-function Jinan River Flood Forecast system is designed by using Visual Studio 2012 and combining with ArcGIS engine development module and database. In this paper, a mathematical model is established to simulate urban production and confluence. In the construction of urban runoff models, three commonly used models are used to calculate runoff, hydrological model HEC-1 and hydrodynamic model SWMM (calculating pipeline confluence) and FLDWAV (calculating river flood routing). Hydrological model and hydrodynamic model are coupled by loosely coupled method. Hydrological model and hydrodynamic model are calculated separately and integrated by interface program. The integrated model is used to extract the relevant information from the hydrological analysis of some areas of Jinan city and other relevant data to establish the flood forecasting model of Jinan river course. The rationality of model parameter selection and reliability of the model are verified by multi-field rainfall and channel hydrological data. According to the historical rain information of Jinan, the long duration and short duration design rainfall process suitable for Jinan is deduced. Based on the designed rainfall and historical typical rainfall, the flood forecasting model of Jinan river is established to simulate the process of rainfall runoff under different rainfall intensity, and to calculate the process of water depth discharge in each period of key river section. The bank of flood forecast plan for river course in Jinan city was established. Based on the general structure and function requirement of the system, the flood forecasting system of Jinan city is developed by using Visual Studio 2012 as the development tool, combining with the Arcgis engine development component and database design, taking the river channel flood forecasting model of Jinan as the core. The functions of map view, loading, water and rain information query, river flood forecast plan query, river flood real time forecast and so on are realized.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TV87;TV124

【参考文献】