黄河下游近50年径流量变化特征及影响因素

发布时间：2018-07-25 09:05

【摘要】：应用Mann-Kendall趋势性检验和突变性检验法、双累积曲线法、GM(1,1)模型等方法,对黄河下游1962—2012年径流量和降水量的变化特征及规律进行了深入探讨,以期对黄河下游水资源调配,防洪减灾提供科技支撑。结果表明:降水量减少趋势不显著,突变时间为1964年,径流量减少趋势显著,突变时间为1979年。降水量和径流量变化具有明显的阶段性,降水量以1986年为界,分为丰水期、枯水期两个阶段,径流量以1979年、1985年为界,分为枯—丰—枯3个阶段,黄河目前处于枯水期。采用双累积曲线法定量分析了降水量和人类活动对径流量的影响程度。结果表明:突变时刻前,降水量和径流量同步变化,呈现正相关,突变时刻后,人类活动是影响径流量变化的主要因素,人类活动和降水量对径流量的作用比例分别为68%和32%。利用GM(1,1)模型预测了未来5年降水量和径流量的变化趋势,表明未来5年降水量和径流量将会有所增加。
[Abstract]:By using Mann-Kendall trend test and mutation test method and double cumulative curve method and GM (1 / 1) model, the variation characteristics and regularity of runoff and precipitation in the lower Yellow River from 1962 to 2012 are discussed in order to allocate the water resources in the lower Yellow River. Flood control and disaster reduction provide scientific and technological support. The results show that the decreasing trend of precipitation is not significant, the sudden change time is 1964, the trend of runoff decrease is remarkable, and the abrupt time is 1979. The precipitation and runoff change have obvious stages. The precipitation is divided into two stages: high water period and low water period. The runoff is divided into three stages: 1979 and 1985. The Yellow River is in the dry season. The effects of precipitation and human activities on runoff were quantitatively analyzed by double cumulative curve method. The results showed that the precipitation and runoff changed synchronously and showed positive correlation before the sudden change. After the sudden change, the human activity was the main factor affecting the runoff change, and the proportion of human activity and precipitation to the runoff was 68% and 32% respectively. The change trend of precipitation and runoff in the next five years is predicted by using GM (1 ~ 1) model, which indicates that the precipitation and runoff will increase in the next five years.
【作者单位】：山东师范大学地理与环境学院;山东城建学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金面上项目(41371517) 山东省科技计划(2013GSF11706)
【分类号】：P333.1

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