人水关系和谐调控理论方法及应用研究

发布时间：2018-07-29 17:16

【摘要】：水资源是人类生产生活的最关键资源,是支撑经济社会可持续发展的重要物质基础,人类历史的发展进步过程与水资源息息相关。伴随着经济社会的快速发展,形势严峻的水资源和水环境问题,严重制约着人类社会的进一步发展,人水关系面临更加严峻的挑战,寻求人水和谐发展之路,逐渐成为全球焦点问题之一。人水和谐理念对区域或流域水资源调控方略的制定实施具有现实的指导意义,基于人水和谐理念,建立人水关系模拟与和谐调控模型是对人水关系研究体系的补充,是对人水系统在不同阶段和谐程度的动态模拟和调控分析,为水资源管理决策的制定提供重要的理论依据。本文在对国内外研究现状及存在问题分析的基础上,基于课题组前期研究成果,结合和谐论理论方法,开展人水关系和谐调控理论方法及应用研究,主要包括以下几方面:(1)人水关系和谐调控理论及框架研究。在系统阐述人水关系基本概念和内涵特征的基础上,提出人水关系和谐调控研究框架,将人水关系和谐评估、定量模拟以及和谐调控纳入该研究框架,并厘清三者之间的相互关系,完善人水关系的研究体系。(2)人水关系和谐程度定量评估研究。以系统论为基础,对人水关系的概念和内涵进行深入分析,按照“目标-准则-分类-指标”四层次构建涵盖水资源、水环境、水生态、社会发展、经济发展、科技发展、供水、保护和管理子系统在内的人水关系和谐评估指标体系;采用和谐论量化评估方法,对研究区河南省进行长序列分地区的人水关系和谐程度定量评估。(3)人水关系模拟研究。采用嵌入式系统动力学模型及方法,将水系统以水资源转化方程以及污染物质量平衡方程的形式与人文系统各种用水模块相耦合,构成动态模拟模型;把该模型应用于河南省,实现人水关系不同情景下的动态模拟,找出影响人水关系的主要影响因素,为人水关系和谐调控奠定基础。(4)人水关系和谐调控研究。提出包含调控模型构建的依据、原则、分类、思路等方面的人水关系和谐调控模型框架;基于匹配度计算方法,将调控地区按照不同的特点分为不同的调控类型;提出两种和谐调控模型,分别为基于和谐平衡的调控模型和基于“三条红线”的调控模型。其中,基于和谐平衡的调控模型,是基于最新提出的和谐平衡概念和量化方法,构建包含和谐平衡一般表达式的调控模型;基于“三条红线”的调控模型,是将“三条红线”作为约束条件,以人水关系和谐程度最大为目标构建的调控模型。
[Abstract]:Water resource is the most critical resource for human production and life, and is the important material foundation to support the sustainable development of economy and society. The development and progress of human history is closely related to water resources. With the rapid development of economy and society, the serious problems of water resources and water environment seriously restrict the further development of human society, and the relationship between human and water faces more severe challenges, seeking the road of harmonious development of human and water. Gradually becoming one of the global focus issues. The concept of human-water harmony has practical guiding significance for the formulation and implementation of regional or watershed water resources regulation strategy. Based on the concept of human-water harmony, the establishment of human-water relationship simulation and harmonious regulation model is a supplement to the research system of human-water relationship. It is the dynamic simulation and control analysis of the harmonious degree of human water system in different stages, and provides an important theoretical basis for making water resources management decision. On the basis of the analysis of the current research situation and existing problems at home and abroad, based on the previous research results of the research group and the theory and method of harmony theory, this paper carries out the research on the theory and application of harmonious regulation between human and water. It mainly includes the following aspects: (1) study on the theory and framework of harmonious regulation of human-water relationship. On the basis of systematically expounding the basic concept and connotation characteristics of human-water relationship, this paper puts forward the research framework of harmonious regulation of human-water relationship, which includes the harmonious evaluation, quantitative simulation and harmonious regulation of human-water relationship. And clarify the relationship between the three, improve the research system of human-water relationship. (2) the quantitative evaluation of the degree of harmony between human and water. Based on the system theory, the concept and connotation of the relationship between human and water are deeply analyzed. According to the four levels of "goal-criteria-classification-index", water resources, water environment, water ecology, social development, economic development, scientific and technological development are constructed. The harmonious evaluation index system of human-water relationship, including water supply, protection and management subsystem, and the quantitative evaluation method of harmony theory were used to evaluate the degree of harmony between human and water in Henan province. (3) the simulation study of human-water relationship. The embedded system dynamics model and method are used to couple the water system in the form of water resources conversion equation and pollutant mass balance equation with all kinds of water use modules of the humanistic system, and the model is applied to Henan Province. To realize the dynamic simulation of the human-water relationship under different scenarios, to find out the main influencing factors of the human-water relationship, and to lay the foundation for the harmonious regulation of the human-water relationship. (4) the study on the harmonious regulation of the human-water relationship. This paper puts forward a framework of harmonious regulation and control model of human-water relationship including the basis, principle, classification and train of thought, and divides the control area into different control types according to different characteristics based on the method of matching degree calculation. Two kinds of harmonious control models are proposed, one is based on harmonious balance and the other is based on "three red lines". Among them, the regulation model based on harmonious balance is based on the newly proposed concept and quantitative method of harmonious balance, which includes the general expression of harmonious balance, the regulation model based on "three red lines", and the control model based on "three red lines". Taking "three red lines" as the constraint condition and taking the maximum degree of harmony between human and water as the target, the regulation model is constructed.
【学位授予单位】：郑州大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：TV213.4

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