中国水规制强度的空间分异与节水减排效应研究

发布时间：2018-08-01 10:06

【摘要】：以水资源短缺、水污染严重、水生态恶化为主要内容的“水危机”问题已成为制约社会经济可持续发展的瓶颈之一。有效的环境规制是提高资源利用效率、缓解环境污染、提高环境质量的可行之策,但近年来我国所实施的环境规制政策效果不甚理想,环境质量仍旧呈现恶化趋势。政府在环境治理上的“搭便车”行为和环境政策制定上的“竞相到底”行为使得环境规制政策效果大打折扣,可见省际间的环境治理效果和环境政策制定存在相互影响。因此,本文聚焦于水资源领域的环境规制,以水规制强度为研究对象,深入探究中国省际间水规制强度的空间特性及其节水减排效应,对于制定正确的水规制政策、解决“水危机”问题具有重要意义。本文围绕水规制强度这一核心,以水规制强度的“测度”——“空间关联性”——“节水减排效应”为主线,回答了以下三个问题:一是水规制强度的空间分布及其演进有何特征规律、是否存在空间依赖性?二是从水质和水量角度细分的水规制强度对节水减排效应是否具有专属性?三是纳入空间因素后,水规制强度对节水减排效应的作用有何变化,是否存在空间溢出?本文基于网络公开信息搜索到的1978年以来我国30个省(市、自治区)省市两级政府部门颁布的八项涉水类制度体系的政策文件数据,运用广义最大熵原理测算得到了1978-2014年中国30个省(市、自治区)的水规制强度,从而构建了三类水规制强度指数:水规制综合强度指数(Fp)、水量规制综合强度指数(Fq1)和水质规制综合强度指数(Fq2)并估计其节水减排效应。在此基础上分析并检验了三类水规制强度指数的空间分布特征、变化趋势及其空间相关性模式和空间动态跃迁路径。最后,分别建立传统范式下(未考虑空间因素)和空间范式下(考虑空间因素)的中国省际水规制强度节水减排效应模型,并进行比较分析水规制强度空间溢出效应的大小。主要得出以下结论:(1)中国省际水规制强度具有显著的空间集聚特征和空间路径依赖性,表现为正向的空间自相关性和地区间空间关系的稳定性,且不同类型水规制强度的发展路径既求同又存异。(2)水规制强度存在空间溢出效应,本地区的节水减排效应受到“邻居”地区水规制强度的影响。省际间水规制强度的空间溢出效应对我国节水减排的的整体提升具有促进作用。(3)提高水规制强度能够增强节水效应和减排效应,不同类型水规制制度所产生的节水效应和减排效应强度具有明显差异,减排效应下的水质规制制度强度具有专属性。
[Abstract]:The "water crisis", which is characterized by shortage of water resources, serious water pollution and deterioration of water ecology, has become one of the bottlenecks restricting the sustainable development of social economy. Effective environmental regulation is a feasible way to improve the efficiency of resource utilization, alleviate environmental pollution and improve environmental quality. However, the effect of environmental regulation policy implemented in China in recent years is not satisfactory, and the environmental quality is still deteriorating. The "hitchhiking" behavior of the government on environmental governance and the "race to the bottom" in the formulation of environmental policy make the effect of environmental regulation policy greatly reduced, so it can be seen that there are mutual influences between the environmental governance effect and the environmental policy formulation among provinces. Therefore, this paper focuses on the environmental regulation in the field of water resources, taking the intensity of water regulation as the research object, deeply explores the spatial characteristics of the water regulation intensity and its water-saving and emission reduction effects between provinces in China, and makes the correct water regulation policy. It is of great significance to solve the problem of water crisis. This paper focuses on the core of water regulation intensity, taking the "measure" of water regulation intensity "spatial relevance"-"water-saving emission reduction effect" as the main line. The following three questions are answered: first, what are the characteristics of the spatial distribution of water regulation intensity and its evolution, and whether there is spatial dependence? The second is whether the water regulation intensity subdivided from the water quality and quantity angle has the specificity to the water saving and emission reduction effect. Third, after incorporating the spatial factors, how does the effect of water regulation intensity change on the effect of water-saving and emission reduction? is there a spatial spillover? This paper is based on the data of eight policy documents issued by government departments of 30 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) in China since 1978, which have been published by government departments at the provincial (municipal) level and the provincial and municipal levels since 1978, based on the public information search on the Internet. The intensity of water regulation in 30 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) of China from 1978 to 2014 was calculated by using the principle of generalized maximum entropy. Thus, three types of water regulation intensity indices are constructed: water regulation comprehensive intensity index (Fp), water regulation comprehensive intensity index (Fq1) and water quality regulation comprehensive intensity index (Fq2), and their water-saving and emission reduction effects are estimated. On this basis, the spatial distribution characteristics, the change trend, the spatial correlation model and the spatial dynamic transition path of three kinds of water regulation intensity indices are analyzed and tested. Finally, the models of water-saving and emission reduction effects of interprovincial water regulation intensity in China are established under the traditional paradigm (without spatial factor) and spatial paradigm (considering spatial factor), and the magnitude of spatial spillover effect of water regulation intensity is compared and analyzed. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the intensity of interprovincial water regulation in China has significant spatial agglomeration characteristics and spatial path dependence, which is manifested by the positive spatial autocorrelation and the stability of regional spatial relationship. And the development paths of different types of water regulation intensity are both common and different. (2) there is spatial spillover effect of water regulation intensity, and the water saving and emission reduction effect in this area is affected by the water regulation intensity in "neighbor" area. Spatial spillover effect of interprovincial water regulation intensity can promote the overall improvement of water saving and emission reduction in China. (3) improving water regulation intensity can enhance water saving effect and emission reduction effect. The intensity of water-saving effect and emission-reduction effect of different types of water regulation system is obviously different, and the intensity of water quality regulation system under the effect of emission reduction is unique.
【学位授予单位】：浙江理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TV213.4

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