土石坝安全监控资料分析和评价模型研究
发布时间：2018-08-01 12:33
【摘要】：我国是一个筑坝大国，在已建成的水库大坝中，以土石坝数目最多，土石坝的安全问题受到越来越多的重视。为了解坝体的真实安全状况，有必要对大坝原型观测资料进行处理和分析，综合考虑影响土石坝安全的各种因素，对坝体性态做出一个完整的、全面的评价，进而针对评价结果采取相应的措施以保证大坝安全运行。 论文针对最小二乘法在求解回归参数时没有考虑异方差的问题，利用加权最小二乘法对其改进，并用加权最小二乘法对土石坝渗流观测资料进行了分析；考虑到土石坝安全评价体系的实际特点，提出了模糊网络分析模型，该模型适宜于解决模糊性和不确定性问题，并且其中包含的网络分析法使权重的确定更加客观。 具体的内容有以下几个方面： （1）从理论上分析了几种常用的回归分析方法的优缺点，针对最小二乘法的不足，应用加权最小二乘法来消除异方差现象，并结合实例加以应用。 （2）分析了目前较常用的几种多指标综合评价方法，针对本文研究的实际问题，将模糊综合评判法和网络分析法相结合，并引入“三角模糊数”理论，，构造基于三角模糊数的模糊网络分析法。 （3）将模糊网络分析法运用到实际水库大坝的安全综合评价中，以验证方法的合理性。同时，将模型的计算结果与模糊层次分析法的结果进行对比，结果表明模糊网络分析法有一定的优越性。
[Abstract]:China is a large dam construction country, among which the earth-rock dam has the largest number, and the safety of earth-rock dam has been paid more and more attention. In order to understand the true safety condition of the dam, it is necessary to process and analyze the observation data of the dam prototype, synthetically consider the various factors affecting the safety of the earth-rock dam, and make a complete and comprehensive evaluation of the dam behavior. Then the corresponding measures are taken to ensure the safe operation of the dam. Aiming at the problem that the least square method does not take heteroscedasticity into account in solving the regression parameters, the weighted least square method is used to improve the method and the weighted least square method is used to analyze the seepage observation data of earth-rock dams. Considering the practical characteristics of the safety evaluation system for earth-rock dams, a fuzzy network analysis model is proposed, which is suitable for solving the fuzzy and uncertain problems, and the network analysis method contained therein makes the weight determination more objective. The specific contents are as follows: (1) the advantages and disadvantages of several commonly used regression analysis methods are analyzed theoretically, and the weighted least square method is used to eliminate the heteroscedasticity phenomenon in view of the shortcomings of the least square method. And the application is combined with examples. (2) several commonly used multi-index comprehensive evaluation methods are analyzed. In view of the practical problems studied in this paper, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is combined with the network analysis method. The theory of "triangular fuzzy number" is introduced to construct the fuzzy network analysis method based on triangular fuzzy number. (3) the fuzzy network analysis method is applied to the comprehensive evaluation of reservoir dam safety in order to verify the rationality of the method. At the same time, the calculation results of the model are compared with the results of the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, the results show that the fuzzy network analysis has some advantages.
【学位授予单位】：郑州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV641;TV698.1
本文编号：2157594
[Abstract]:China is a large dam construction country, among which the earth-rock dam has the largest number, and the safety of earth-rock dam has been paid more and more attention. In order to understand the true safety condition of the dam, it is necessary to process and analyze the observation data of the dam prototype, synthetically consider the various factors affecting the safety of the earth-rock dam, and make a complete and comprehensive evaluation of the dam behavior. Then the corresponding measures are taken to ensure the safe operation of the dam. Aiming at the problem that the least square method does not take heteroscedasticity into account in solving the regression parameters, the weighted least square method is used to improve the method and the weighted least square method is used to analyze the seepage observation data of earth-rock dams. Considering the practical characteristics of the safety evaluation system for earth-rock dams, a fuzzy network analysis model is proposed, which is suitable for solving the fuzzy and uncertain problems, and the network analysis method contained therein makes the weight determination more objective. The specific contents are as follows: (1) the advantages and disadvantages of several commonly used regression analysis methods are analyzed theoretically, and the weighted least square method is used to eliminate the heteroscedasticity phenomenon in view of the shortcomings of the least square method. And the application is combined with examples. (2) several commonly used multi-index comprehensive evaluation methods are analyzed. In view of the practical problems studied in this paper, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is combined with the network analysis method. The theory of "triangular fuzzy number" is introduced to construct the fuzzy network analysis method based on triangular fuzzy number. (3) the fuzzy network analysis method is applied to the comprehensive evaluation of reservoir dam safety in order to verify the rationality of the method. At the same time, the calculation results of the model are compared with the results of the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, the results show that the fuzzy network analysis has some advantages.
【学位授予单位】：郑州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV641;TV698.1
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