黑龙江省水资源—经济—社会复合系统协调度研究

发布时间：2018-08-03 17:01

【摘要】：随着近几十年世界经济的快速发展,生态文明建设的逐步深化,区域社会经济发展对水资源有效利用提出了更高的要求,合理规划、配置、开发水资源已成为地区可持续发展研究的新方向。为实现区域水资源-经济-社会复合系统的健康、稳定、良性发展,必须将水资源的合理开发和有效利用与地区社会经济发展相结合,将复合系统的协同运行作为区域发展的主要方向。黑龙江省是我国重要的粮食保障基地,在多年地区经济发展的影响下,频频出现水资源方面的问题,近些年地区及流域的水质、水量统计监测数据也显示其正朝着自然资源恶性循环利用的方向发展。本文选取黑龙江省作为研究对象,从区域协调发展的角度进行深入研究,构建黑龙江省经济-社会-水资源复合系统协调度评价模型,依据结果对黑龙江省水资源有效利用、经济发展、社会进步的协调发展现状进行分析。首先,本文按照复合系统理论方法分析了黑龙江省经济-社会-水资源复合系统的体系结构、子系统功能及内在发展变化规律及矛盾;其次,以复合系统为整体研究对象,在指标构建原则及方法的指导下,分别从区域水资源利用、经济现状、社会发展层面通过主成分分析法对评价指标进行了筛选,并以模糊层次分析法赋权,从而构建了黑龙江省水资源-经济-社会复合系统的协调度评价指标体系;再次,本文以离散度为原则构建了用于多元复合系统协调度评价的计算模型;最后,依据多元复合系统协调度模型的计算方法对黑龙江省水资源-经济-社会复合系统协调度进行了评价,并从全省复合系统协调度的多年演化规律与省辖地区之间复合系统协调度差异化这两方面进行了评价结果分析,所得结论如下:(1)黑龙江省水资源-经济-社会协调度的时间演变规律黑龙江省水资源-经济-社会复合系统的协调度由严重失调类型逐渐转为基本协调类型,始终保持波动增长的发展趋势,并且波动幅度随着协调度的增加而增大。在子系统之间协调度的分析中,水资源-社会系统的协调度保持稳定状态,经济-社会系统的协调度持续稳定增长,水资源-经济系统协调度的波动范围较大,规律性不明显。(2)省辖地区水资源-经济-社会复合系统协调度的差异化黑龙江省大部分地区的复合系统协调度均达到了勉强协调类型以上,仅哈尔滨市、大庆市以及大兴安岭地区属于失调状态。13个地区按照子系统之间协调度的差异可以划分为五种发展类型,分别为水资源-经济系统协调度较高,经济-社会系统协调度较低类型;水资源-经济系统协调度较高,水资源-社会系统协调度较低类型;水资源-社会系统协调度较高,水资源-经济系统协调度较低类型;经济-社会系统协调度较高,水资源-社会系统协调度较低类型;经济-社会系统协调度较高,水资源-经济系统协调度较低类型;
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the world economy in recent decades and the gradual deepening of the construction of ecological civilization, the development of regional social and economic development has put forward higher requirements for the effective utilization of water resources. The rational planning, allocation and development of water resources have become a new direction for the study of regional sustainable development. Stable and benign development, the rational development and effective utilization of water resources must be combined with regional social and economic development, and the coordinated operation of the compound system is the main direction of regional development. Heilongjiang province is an important grain guarantee base in China. Under the influence of regional economic development for many years, the problems of water resources appear frequently. The water quality and water statistics monitoring data in some areas and basins in recent years also show that they are developing towards the vicious cycle of natural resources. In this paper, Heilongjiang province is selected as the research object, from the perspective of regional coordinated development, to construct the evaluation model of the coordination degree of the economic social water resources complex system in Heilongjiang province. This paper analyzes the current situation of the coordinated development of water resources, economic development and social progress in Heilongjiang province. Firstly, this paper analyzes the system structure of the economic social water resources complex system in Heilongjiang Province, the function of the subsystem and the internal development of the system and the contradictions in accordance with the complex system theory method. Secondly, the composite system is the whole. The research object, under the guidance of the principle and method of the index construction, the evaluation indexes are screened from the regional water resources utilization, the economic status and the social development level by the principal component analysis method, and the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is used to establish the evaluation index system of the coordination degree of the water resources economy social complex system of Heilongjiang province. Thirdly, this paper constructs a calculation model for the evaluation of the coordination degree of multiple composite systems based on the principle of dispersion. Finally, it evaluates the coordination degree of the water resources economy social complex system of Heilongjiang province according to the calculation method of the coordination degree model of multiple composite systems, and from the multi-year evolution law of the coordination degree of the whole province compound system and the provincial jurisdiction. The difference of the coordination degree of the complex system between the regions is analyzed in the two aspects. The conclusions are as follows: (1) the time evolution of water resources, economy and social coordination in Heilongjiang Province, the coordination degree of the water resources economic social complex system in Heilongjiang province is gradually transformed from serious imbalance type to the basic coordination type, and it always keeps fluctuating. In the analysis of the coordination degree between the subsystems, the coordination degree of water resources social system remains stable, the coordination degree of the economic and social system continues to grow steadily, the fluctuation range of the coordination degree of water resources economic system is large and the regularity is not obvious. (2) the jurisdiction of the water resources - economic system coordination degree is not obvious. The coordination degree of regional water resources, economy and social complex system is different, and the coordination degree of complex system in most areas of Heilongjiang has reached the level of reluctance and coordination. Only Harbin, Daqing and Greater Khingan Range areas are in maladjusted.13 regions, which can be divided into five types of development according to the difference of coordination between subsystems. The water resources economic system coordination degree is high, the economic and social system coordination degree is lower, the water resources economic system coordination degree is high, the water resources social system coordination degree is low type; the water resources social system coordination degree is high, the water resources economic system coordination degree is relatively low type; the economic social system coordination degree is high, water capital. The coordination degree of source social system is relatively low, the coordination degree of economic social system is high, and the coordination degree of water resources economic system is relatively low.
【学位授予单位】：东北农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F127;TV213.4

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