城乡统筹背景下重庆市水生态足迹分析及预测

发布时间：2018-08-03 19:38

【摘要】：为研究城乡统筹背景下重庆市水生态足迹情况,利用水生态足迹模型,分析了重庆市2000—2014年水生态足迹和水资源承载力,运用GRNN模型预测了2015—2018年城乡人均水生态足迹与人均水资源承载力。结果表明,12000—2014年重庆市水生态足迹总体呈上升趋势,由0.093 2亿hm~2增长到0.143 5亿hm~2。水资源承载力受降水量的影响,整体波动较大。水生态压力指数介于0.115 6~0.235 9之间,远小于1,水资源开发利用空间大。2城乡水生态足迹与水资源承载力有差异:农村总水生态足迹大于城市,但人均水生态足迹小于城市。农村总水资源承载力与人均水资源承载力均大于城市。城市水生态压力指数大于农村,但二者都小于1,说明城市水资源利用程度高,但城市发展对水资源的压力也大。3预计2015—2018年重庆市城乡人均水生态足迹总体上都呈上升态势,城市人均水生态足迹将由0.386 64 hm~2增长到0.409 62 hm~2,增长了6%。农村人均水生态足迹将由0.276 50 hm~2增长到0.336 57 hm~2,增长了22%。城乡人均水资源承载力在一定范围内相对稳定,水生态足迹增长将威胁水资源可持续利用。在充分考虑重庆市水资源的时空分布基础上,优化产业结构、转变发展方式、统筹城乡布局,可促进重庆社会经济可持续发展。
[Abstract]:In order to study the water ecological footprint of Chongqing under the background of urban and rural planning, the water ecological footprint and water resources carrying capacity of Chongqing from 2000 to 2014 were analyzed by using the water ecological footprint model. GRNN model is used to predict the per capita ecological footprint and carrying capacity of water resources in urban and rural areas from 2015 to 2018. The results showed that the water ecological footprint of Chongqing increased from 9.32 million hm~2 to 14.35 million hm~2 from 2000 to 2014. The carrying capacity of water resources is affected by precipitation and fluctuates greatly as a whole. The index of water ecological pressure is between 0.115 and 0.2359, which is far less than 1. There is a difference between the water ecological footprint and the carrying capacity of water resources in urban and rural areas in the large space of water resources exploitation and utilization: the ecological footprint of total water in rural areas is larger than that in cities, but the ecological footprint per capita is smaller than that in cities. The carrying capacity of rural total water resources and per capita water resources are both larger than those of cities. The urban water ecological pressure index is larger than that of rural areas, but both of them are less than 1, which indicates that the utilization of urban water resources is high, but the pressure of urban development on water resources is also large. 3. It is estimated that the per capita water ecological footprint of urban and rural areas in Chongqing will increase in the whole period from 2015 to 2018. Urban per capita water ecological footprint will increase from 0.386 64 hm~2 to 0.409 62 hmm2, an increase of 6%. The per capita water ecological footprint in rural areas will increase from 0.276 50 hm~2 to 0.336 57 hmm2, an increase of 22%. The per capita carrying capacity of water resources in urban and rural areas is relatively stable within a certain range, and the increase of water ecological footprint will threaten the sustainable utilization of water resources. On the basis of fully considering the spatial and temporal distribution of water resources in Chongqing, the sustainable development of Chongqing's social economy can be promoted by optimizing the industrial structure, changing the mode of development and coordinating the distribution of urban and rural areas.
【作者单位】：重庆师范大学地理与旅游学院;重庆市三峡库区地表过程与环境遥感重点实验室;贵州科学院山地资源研究所;贵州师范大学喀斯特研究院;河南大学环境与规划学院;
【基金】：贵州省重大科技专项(黔科合重大专项字⺌2012⺗6015号) 国家科技支撑计划项目(2014BAB03B01) 贵州省重大应用基础专项(黔科合J重大字[2015]2001)
【分类号】：TV213.4

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