潘家口水库流域土地利用变化的水文响应模拟

发布时间：2018-08-06 11:11

【摘要】：滦河是保障天津市供水的重要水源,引栾工程是天津市供水的重要支撑。.引滦工程建成以来,已向天津市供水170亿m~3,为天津市的社会经济发展作出了很大贡献。但是近十年来潘家口水库流域的水资源状况发生了明显的变化,特别是近几年潘家口水库入库径流量大幅度衰减,多次造成天津市供水危机,迫使天津市四次实施引黄济津的应急调水。因此研究土地利用/覆被变化对潘家口水库入库径流的影响机制是非常具有现实意义的。SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)模型是20世纪90年代初美国农业部(USDA)开发的面向大中流域、长时间尺度的分布式水文模型,主要用于模拟土地管理措施对水流、泥沙和农业化学物质的长期影响,国内外的应用经验表明,该模型具有广泛的适用性。本文以潘家口水库流域为研究区域,应用SWAT模型对该区域的径流进行模拟计算,并根据实测资料对模型的参数进行了率定和验证,在确定模型适用性的基础上分析了潘家口水库入库径流的演变特征。模拟结果表明:与1980年土地利用情景相比,2006年土地利用情景下的多年平均径流减少11%;对于不同典型水文年份而言,土地利用变化对枯水年的影响最大,对丰水年和平水年的影响相当;土地利用变化对年径流的影响主要表现为汛期径流减少;潘家口水库流域水资源涵养能力有所增加。对2006年土地利用情景下模拟的年径流做频率分析,得到相应于10%,50%,90%频率的设计年径流量分别为42.7亿m~3,20.3亿m~3和7.6亿m~3,并通过缩放响应典型年的径流年内分配过程,对设计年径流进行年内分配。模拟研究土地利用对潘家口水库流域径流的影响,对合理规划土地利用和流域水资源综合管理具有现实意义。
[Abstract]:Luanhe River is an important source of water supply in Tianjin. Since the construction of Luanhe River diversion Project, 17 billion mm3 water supply has been supplied to Tianjin, which has made great contribution to the social and economic development of Tianjin. However, in the last ten years, the situation of water resources in the Panjiakou reservoir basin has changed obviously, especially in recent years, the runoff of the Panjiakou reservoir has been greatly reduced, resulting in the water supply crisis in Tianjin City for many times. Forced Tianjin four times to implement the emergency water diversion of the Yellow River and Tianjin. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the influence mechanism of land use / cover change on the inflow and runoff of Panjiakou Reservoir. The SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model is developed by (USDA) of USDA in the early 1990s. The long time scale distributed hydrological model is mainly used to simulate the long-term effects of land management measures on water flow, sediment and agricultural chemicals. The application experience at home and abroad shows that the model is widely applicable. Taking the Panjiakou reservoir basin as the study area, the SWAT model is used to simulate and calculate the runoff in this area, and the parameters of the model are determined and verified according to the measured data. On the basis of determining the applicability of the model, the evolution characteristics of inflow runoff of Panjiakou Reservoir are analyzed. The simulation results show that compared with the land use scenarios in 1980, the annual average runoff under the land use scenarios in 2006 is reduced by 11 percent, and for different typical hydrological years, the land use change has the greatest impact on the dry year. The effects of land use change on the annual runoff are similar to those on the high water year and the average water year. The main effects of land use change on the annual runoff are the decrease of runoff in flood season and the increase of water resources conservation capacity in Panjiakou reservoir basin. Based on the frequency analysis of the annual runoff simulated under the land use scenarios in 2006, the design annual runoff corresponding to the frequency of 1050% and 90% is 4.27 billion mm3, 2.03 billion mm3 and 760 million mm3, respectively, and the in-year runoff distribution process in response to the typical year is obtained by scaling. Year-in-year allocation of design year runoff. It is of practical significance to simulate the impact of land use on runoff in Panjiakou reservoir basin and to rationally plan land use and integrated management of water resources in the basin.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV697.21

【参考文献】