基于空间计量模型的河南省用水效率影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-08-08 19:11

【摘要】：在水资源总量约束下,提高水资源利用效率是保障缺水地区城镇化、工业化与经济社会发展的必然途径。论文以河南省地级市2000—2013年面板数据为基础,运用空间计量模型,从水资源禀赋、水资源开发利用程度、经济发展水平、城镇化水平、产业结构、用水结构、农业现代化水平、信息化水平等方面入手,对河南省用水效率的影响因素进行分析。结果表明:1)河南省地级市用水效率存在不可忽视的空间自相关特征,时空固定形式下的空间杜宾模型可以实现其最优模拟;2)河南省各地级市用水效率明显受邻近地级市用水效率的影响,其空间溢出弹性系数达到0.31;3)水资源禀赋、水资源开发利用程度对河南省各地级市用水效率产生显著的负向影响,但其空间溢出效应不明显;4)经济发展水平、城镇化发展水平、产业结构优化水平对河南省各地级市用水效率产生显著的正向影响,而且除工业化水平外,空间溢出效应十分明显;5)用水结构变化、农业现代化、信息化水平与河南省用水效率的相关关系总体不明显,河南省水资源可持续利用与全国"四化"协调发展示范区建设的关系有待进一步协调。
[Abstract]:Under the restriction of the total amount of water resources, improving the efficiency of water resources utilization is an inevitable way to ensure the urbanization, industrialization and economic and social development of water shortage areas. Based on the panel data of prefecture-level cities in Henan Province from 2000 to 2013, the paper applies spatial metrological model to analyze the endowment of water resources, the development and utilization of water resources, the level of economic development, the level of urbanization, the industrial structure and the water use structure. This paper analyzes the influencing factors of water use efficiency in Henan Province from the aspects of agricultural modernization level and information level. The results show that there are spatial autocorrelation characteristics of water use efficiency in prefecture-level cities in Henan Province. The spatial Dobbin model in the fixed form of time and space can achieve its optimal simulation. 2) the water use efficiency of each prefectural city in Henan Province is obviously affected by the water use efficiency of the adjacent prefectural cities, and its spatial spillover elasticity coefficient reaches 0.31 ~ 3). The degree of exploitation and utilization of water resources has a significant negative impact on the efficiency of water use in all prefectural cities in Henan Province, but its spatial spillover effect is not obvious (4) the level of economic development and the level of urbanization development. The level of industrial structure optimization has a significant positive impact on the efficiency of water use in all prefectural cities in Henan Province. Besides the industrialization level, the spatial spillover effect is very obvious. 5) the water use structure changes and the agricultural modernization. The relationship between the level of informatization and the efficiency of water use in Henan Province is not obvious, and the relationship between the sustainable utilization of water resources in Henan Province and the harmonious development and demonstration area construction of the "four modernizations" in the whole country needs to be further coordinated.
【作者单位】：中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所/院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室;中国环境科学研究院国家环境保护区域生态过程与功能评估重点实验室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41590844;41571156) 中国科学院特色研究所培育建设服务项目(TSYJS02)~~
【分类号】：TV213.4

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