等维动态递补灰色模型改进及应用研究

发布时间：2018-08-10 19:43

【摘要】：针对等维动态递补灰色模型对波动性数据预测的局限性,提出了缓冲算子等维动态递补灰色模型,改进了原有模型对波动性数据预测误差较大的问题。利用成都市2008—2013年的用水统计资料,在验证了模型的实用性后,分别建立了传统的GM(1,1)模型、等维动态递补GM(1,1)模型以及带有弱化缓冲算子的等维动态递补GM(1,1)模型,对成都市2016、2020、2025年各类用水量进行预测分析。结果表明,改进后的模型预测精度高,实用性好,能给成都市未来的水资源规划与管理提供可靠的依据。
[Abstract]:In view of the limitation of the equal-dimensional dynamic complementary grey model to the prediction of volatility data, the buffer operator dynamic complementary grey model is proposed, which improves the problem that the prediction error of the original model to the volatility data is large. Based on the statistical data of water use in Chengdu from 2008 to 2013, after verifying the practicability of the model, the traditional GM (1K1) model, the equal dimensional dynamic complementary GM (1K1) model and the equidimensional dynamic complementary GM (1K1) model with weakening buffer operator are established respectively. This paper forecasts and analyses the water consumption of all kinds in Chengdu by 2020,2025. The results show that the improved model has high prediction accuracy and good practicability and can provide reliable basis for the planning and management of water resources in Chengdu in the future.
【作者单位】：四川大学;
【分类号】：TV213.4

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