基于遗传算法的松花江流域哈尔滨段水资源优化配置研究

发布时间：2018-08-11 19:44

【摘要】：水作为维系生命和社会发展的物质基础,在国民经济生产中占有至关重要的作用,是不可替代的自然资源。随着经济的发展,人口的增长,生活水平的提高使得水资源供需矛盾问题的日益恶化,因此,制定区域内水资源优化配置方案意义重大。本文以国家水专项课题为依托,以2012年为基准现状年,对哈尔滨研究区范围内进行了需水量的预测。并根据《哈尔滨市城市供水工程专项规划(2010-2020)》中有关未来年份供水能力的要求,预测2015年、2020年研究区内的供水量。对规划年供、需水量进行对比分析,其结果为,在不同保证率下(P=50%、75%)哈尔滨市优先控制单元内表现为不同程度的缺水,本文采用遗传算法建立水资源优化配置模型,对各部门供水量进行合理分配。研究结果表明:(1)结合研究区社会经济发展指标,选取万元产值法和用水定额法预测2015年、2020年不同保证率下不同用水部门(工业、农业、生活)的需水量。2015年保证率在P=50%、75%保证率下的需水量分别为14.1420亿m3、14.4613亿m3;2020年在不同保证率下的需水量分别15.8036亿m3、16.1423亿m3。(2)研究区内的供水水源主要为地表水、地下水和外调水。依据现状年的供水能力及相关供水设施的规划,预测2015年在保证率P=50%、75%下的供水量分别为12.0293亿m3、12.3970亿m3;2020年在不同保证率下的需水量分别13.9525亿m3、14.6084亿m3。经分析,规划年内整体缺水,并且保证率越高时缺水现象更为严重。(3)以社会、经济和环境三种效益为目标,以多种水源为约束条件,建立多目标数学模型,利用遗传算法效益系数的权重不同分配水资源,在MATLAB软件下得到规划年不同分配率下的供水量。此模型是权衡了工业、农业、生活用水重要性不同而进行求解,体现了可持续发展的思想,并依据模型结果给出宏观调控建议。
[Abstract]:Water, as the material basis of sustaining life and social development, plays a vital role in the national economic production and is an irreplaceable natural resource. With the development of economy, the increase of population and the improvement of living standard, the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources is worsening day by day. Therefore, it is of great significance to make the optimal allocation of water resources in the region. Based on the national water project and the current year of 2012, the paper forecasts the water demand in Harbin research area. According to the requirements of water supply capacity in the future years in Harbin City Water supply Project (2010-2020), the water supply capacity in 2015 and 2020 is predicted. A comparative analysis of planning annual supply and water demand is carried out. The results show that the priority control unit of Harbin is characterized by water shortage of different degrees under different guarantee rates (Pfi50%). In this paper, genetic algorithm is used to establish the optimal allocation model of water resources. Reasonable distribution of water supply to each department. The results show that: (1) combined with the social and economic development indicators of the study area, the ten thousand yuan output value method and the water quota method are selected to predict different water use sectors (industry, agriculture) under different guarantee rates in 2015 and 2020. (2) the main sources of water supply in the study area are surface water, groundwater and external diversion water, respectively, which are 1.4142 billion m3 and 1.44613 billion m3 in 2015 and 1.58036 billion m3 and 1.61423 billion m3 respectively in 2020. (2) the main sources of water supply in the study area are surface water, groundwater and external diversion water. According to the current year's water supply capacity and the planning of related water supply facilities, it is predicted that the water supply under the guarantee rate of 75% in 2015 is 1.20293 billion m3, 1.2397 billion m3 in 2015, and 1.39525 billion m3 and 1.46084 billion m3 under different guarantee rates in 2020. Through analysis, it is found that the overall water shortage in the planning year is more serious when the guarantee rate is higher. (3) taking the social, economic and environmental benefits as the goal and taking various water sources as the constraint conditions, the multi-objective mathematical model is established. Using the weight of benefit coefficient of genetic algorithm to allocate water resources, the water supply under different allocation rate of planning year is obtained by MATLAB software. This model is solved by balancing the importance of industry, agriculture and domestic water, and reflects the idea of sustainable development. According to the results of the model, the macro-control suggestions are given.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TV213.4

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