辽浑太流域大型水库供水联合调度模型及规则研究
发布时间：2018-08-16 07:27
【摘要】：随着大规模水库群的逐渐形成,河库水系连通方式也变得复杂多样,连通格局的变化使水库群联合调度呈现出很多新的特点和难题,对其进行综合调度与运行管理变得越来越复杂。因此,开展连通条件下大规模水库群联合调度方法与理论研究和可行的联合调度规则制定,是现阶段亟待解决的一项重要课题。为此,本文选取辽宁省直属供水水库群为研究对象,从理论研究和实例应用两个方面入手,对连通条件下供水水库群调度规则的制定、模型的构建方式及求解方法以及跨流域供水水库群的调水机制进行了深入的研究,主要研究内容与成果如下：(1)基于长期的实测径流资料,分析辽宁省境内辽河流域四座大型水库入库径流的年内及年际变化特征。并采用Spearman秩次相关检验法和Mann-Kendall秩次相关检验法对各研究区域内的大型水库入库径流变化规律进行分析,同时建立了基于Copula函数的二维联合分布模型,利用该模型对流域间的径流补偿特征进行分析,以判断水库(流域)间的径流补偿能力。(2)根据现状条件下辽宁省直属水库群供水调度方式,按流域划分供水单元,概化并绘制各供水单元的网络结构图。以所划分的供水单元为基础,应用优化方法分别对各供水单元内的单库、简单串联水库群及简单并联水库群进行优化调度,得到由水库(库群)优化调度图及其调度规则组成的优化供水调度方案,并确定省直属水库群在现状条件下单库(单流域)的最大供水能力。(3)针对供水水库群的联合调度问题,基于“聚合分解”思想,提出了聚合水库调度规则求解框架。在该框架内,构建了与供水水库群等效的聚合水库,并在聚合阶段给出了两类聚合水库供水调度规则形式用于指导聚合水库的供水调度；在分解阶段,针对水库群共同供水目标的供水分配问题,提出多种形式的静态分水方法以及动态分水方法来确定每个成员水库所承担的供水任务。将该框架应用于辽河干流流域清河、柴河并联水库群构成的聚合水库供水调度之中,重点研究了不同形式的调度规则对水库群联合调度性能的影响。(4)以浑太流域水库群为研究对象,分别采用两类不同的建模方式构建水库群联合调度模型Ⅰ和Ⅱ,并制定相应的联合供水调度规则。在此基础上,利用模拟-优化模型对调度规则进行寻优,通过对比讨论不同规则下基于实测径流系列的水库群联合优化调度结果,验证联合调度规则的合理性。与此同时,为降低径流不确定性对模型应用结果的影响,提出了基于主站法的一阶自回归-解集组合模型用于旬径流模拟系列的随机生成,并将其生成的旬径流模拟系列输入到联合调度模型Ⅰ、Ⅱ之中,以分析两类联合调度模型的合理性和差异性。(5)分析跨流域调水系统的空间拓扑结构,并制定了同时考虑水库群供水以及流域间调水的双向型跨流域供水水库群联合调度规则。在规则中,提出了基于两个聚合水库调水控制线的调水启动机制用于指导流域间水库群的双向调水。该启动机制以流域水库群时段初蓄水状态为判别指标,通过建立水库群时段初蓄水总量与调水控制线之间的相关关系来实现流域间水量的调配。为验证所提出的调度规则的合理性和有效性,制定四个不同的联合调度方案指导含双向跨流域调水工程的辽宁省直属水库群的联合调度,结果说明了双向跨流域供水方案可以同时提高两个流域水库群的供水量以及各农业灌区的供水保证率,使流域间的水库群能以互利的方式进行供水。最后对全文作出总结,并对有待进一步研究的问题进行了展望。
[Abstract]:With the gradual formation of large-scale reservoir groups, River and reservoir water system connectivity has become complex and diverse, the change of connectivity pattern makes the joint operation of reservoir groups show many new characteristics and problems, and its comprehensive operation and operation management become more and more complex. Therefore, this paper chooses the water supply reservoir group directly under Liaoning Province as the research object, starts from the theoretical research and the example application two aspects, to formulate the water supply reservoir group operation rules under the connected condition, the model construction way and the solution method. The main contents and achievements are as follows: (1) Based on long-term observed runoff data, the annual and interannual variation characteristics of inflow runoff of four large reservoirs in Liaohe River basin in Liaoning Province are analyzed, and Spearman rank correlation test and Mann-Kendall rank phase are used. The Guan-Cheng method is used to analyze the runoff variation of large reservoirs in each study area, and a two-dimensional joint distribution model based on Copula function is established. The model is used to analyze the characteristics of runoff compensation between basins, so as to judge the runoff compensation ability between reservoirs (basins). (2) According to the current situation, the direct water of Liaoning Province is provided. The water supply dispatching mode of reservoir group is divided into water supply units according to the river basin, and the network structure diagram of each water supply unit is generalized and drawn. Based on the water supply units, the single reservoir, the simple series reservoir and the simple parallel reservoir in each water supply unit are optimized and dispatched respectively by using the optimization method, and the optimal dispatching diagram of reservoir (reservoir group) is obtained. (3) Aiming at the joint operation of water supply reservoirs, based on the idea of "aggregation decomposition", a framework for solving the operation rules of aggregate reservoirs is proposed. Equivalent aggregate reservoir and two types of aggregate reservoir water supply dispatching rules are given to guide the aggregate reservoir water supply dispatching in the aggregation stage. The framework is applied to the water supply dispatch of aggregate reservoirs composed of Qinghe and Chaihe parallel reservoirs in the main stream of Liaohe River basin, and the effect of different dispatching rules on the joint dispatch performance of reservoirs is mainly studied. (4) The Huntai reservoir group is taken as the research object, and two different modeling methods are adopted to construct the model. On this basis, the simulation-optimization model is used to optimize the operation rules. By comparing and discussing the joint optimal operation results of reservoir groups based on the measured runoff series under different rules, the rationality of the joint operation rules is verified. The effect of low runoff uncertainty on the application results of the model is studied. A combined model of first-order autoregressive-disaggregation based on the master station method is proposed for the random generation of ten-day runoff simulation series. The ten-day runoff simulation series generated by the model is input into the joint operation model I and II to analyze the rationality and difference of the two kinds of joint operation models. The spatial topology of inter-basin water transfer system is analyzed, and the joint operation rules of two-way inter-basin water supply reservoirs are formulated, which consider both water supply by reservoirs and inter-basin water transfer. The motivation mechanism takes the initial impoundment state of the reservoir group as the judgment index, and realizes the inter-basin water allocation by establishing the correlation between the total amount of initial impoundment and the water transfer control line. To verify the rationality and validity of the proposed regulation, four different joint operation schemes are formulated to guide the two-way cross-flow. The results show that the two-way inter-basin water supply scheme can simultaneously increase the water supply quantity of the reservoir groups in the two basins and the water supply guarantee rate of each agricultural irrigation area, so that the reservoir groups between the basins can supply water in a mutually beneficial way. The research questions are prospected.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TV697.1
本文编号：2185239
[Abstract]:With the gradual formation of large-scale reservoir groups, River and reservoir water system connectivity has become complex and diverse, the change of connectivity pattern makes the joint operation of reservoir groups show many new characteristics and problems, and its comprehensive operation and operation management become more and more complex. Therefore, this paper chooses the water supply reservoir group directly under Liaoning Province as the research object, starts from the theoretical research and the example application two aspects, to formulate the water supply reservoir group operation rules under the connected condition, the model construction way and the solution method. The main contents and achievements are as follows: (1) Based on long-term observed runoff data, the annual and interannual variation characteristics of inflow runoff of four large reservoirs in Liaohe River basin in Liaoning Province are analyzed, and Spearman rank correlation test and Mann-Kendall rank phase are used. The Guan-Cheng method is used to analyze the runoff variation of large reservoirs in each study area, and a two-dimensional joint distribution model based on Copula function is established. The model is used to analyze the characteristics of runoff compensation between basins, so as to judge the runoff compensation ability between reservoirs (basins). (2) According to the current situation, the direct water of Liaoning Province is provided. The water supply dispatching mode of reservoir group is divided into water supply units according to the river basin, and the network structure diagram of each water supply unit is generalized and drawn. Based on the water supply units, the single reservoir, the simple series reservoir and the simple parallel reservoir in each water supply unit are optimized and dispatched respectively by using the optimization method, and the optimal dispatching diagram of reservoir (reservoir group) is obtained. (3) Aiming at the joint operation of water supply reservoirs, based on the idea of "aggregation decomposition", a framework for solving the operation rules of aggregate reservoirs is proposed. Equivalent aggregate reservoir and two types of aggregate reservoir water supply dispatching rules are given to guide the aggregate reservoir water supply dispatching in the aggregation stage. The framework is applied to the water supply dispatch of aggregate reservoirs composed of Qinghe and Chaihe parallel reservoirs in the main stream of Liaohe River basin, and the effect of different dispatching rules on the joint dispatch performance of reservoirs is mainly studied. (4) The Huntai reservoir group is taken as the research object, and two different modeling methods are adopted to construct the model. On this basis, the simulation-optimization model is used to optimize the operation rules. By comparing and discussing the joint optimal operation results of reservoir groups based on the measured runoff series under different rules, the rationality of the joint operation rules is verified. The effect of low runoff uncertainty on the application results of the model is studied. A combined model of first-order autoregressive-disaggregation based on the master station method is proposed for the random generation of ten-day runoff simulation series. The ten-day runoff simulation series generated by the model is input into the joint operation model I and II to analyze the rationality and difference of the two kinds of joint operation models. The spatial topology of inter-basin water transfer system is analyzed, and the joint operation rules of two-way inter-basin water supply reservoirs are formulated, which consider both water supply by reservoirs and inter-basin water transfer. The motivation mechanism takes the initial impoundment state of the reservoir group as the judgment index, and realizes the inter-basin water allocation by establishing the correlation between the total amount of initial impoundment and the water transfer control line. To verify the rationality and validity of the proposed regulation, four different joint operation schemes are formulated to guide the two-way cross-flow. The results show that the two-way inter-basin water supply scheme can simultaneously increase the water supply quantity of the reservoir groups in the two basins and the water supply guarantee rate of each agricultural irrigation area, so that the reservoir groups between the basins can supply water in a mutually beneficial way. The research questions are prospected.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TV697.1
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