水汽放大法在PMP估算中的改进与探讨

发布时间：2018-08-16 15:22

【摘要】：可能最大降水(Probable Maximum Precipitation,PMP)与可能最大洪水(Probable Maximum Flood, PMF)是推求重要水利水电工程和核电工程设计洪水的主要方法,是重要水库大坝和溢洪道的普遍设计标准,目前在世界上得到了广泛的应用。国内外水文气象专家在可能最大降水(PMP)和可能最大洪水(PMF)的估算上做了大量的工作,取得了丰硕的研究成果。可能最大洪水的推求是基于可能最大降水的结果,因此本论文首先对可能最大降水估算方法的国内外研究进展和现状进行了阐述,然后介绍了目前世界上通用的六种估算方法的原理和适用性,并比较了每种方法的优劣。由于各种PMP估算方法均基于可降水量的结果进行,因此本论文在对三种可降水量估算方法进行比较分析后,重点研究假绝热法估算可降水量在可能最大降水估算中的改进,并利用全国范围的可降水量结果对结论进行验证,最后以香港的PMP估算为例探讨改进措施的应用。采用探空法、假绝热法、经验公式法对东南沿海五省区的可降水量进行计算,比较发现,三种求得的大气可降水量具有较好的相关性,都可用于实际工作。但经验公式法的结果偏小；而利用假绝热法推求的大气可降水量偏大,且偏差随着纬度变化而变化,纬度越低,假绝热法推求的可降水量相对误差越大,因此若采用暴雨移置法估算PMP时需要进行纬度校正。通过利用香港地区每五分钟的降水资料分析香港地区的降水气候条件,拟定出估算香港地区PMP的方法和方案。采用当地暴雨放大法和改进后的暴雨移置法对香港地区4小时和24小时PMP进行估算。最后将估算得到的可能最大降水成果,从方法上和结果上进行合理性分析,与中国东南沿海点暴雨记录和世界历史点暴雨记录比较,与频率分析结果进行比较,综合分析认为成果是合理的,并推荐比较可靠的PMP结果供工程设计使用。
[Abstract]:The possible maximum precipitation (Probable Maximum Flood, PMF) and the possible maximum flood (Probable Maximum Flood, PMF) are the main methods to calculate the design flood of important water conservancy and hydropower projects and nuclear power projects, and are the universal design standards for important reservoir dams and spillways. At present, it has been widely used in the world. Domestic and foreign hydrometeorological experts have done a lot of work on the estimation of possible maximum precipitation (PMP) and possible maximum flood (PMF), and have obtained fruitful research results. The calculation of the possible maximum flood is based on the results of the possible maximum precipitation. Therefore, this paper first describes the research progress and current situation of the estimation methods of the possible maximum precipitation at home and abroad. Then it introduces the principle and applicability of six kinds of estimation methods used in the world, and compares the advantages and disadvantages of each method. Because all kinds of PMP estimation methods are based on the results of precipitable water, this paper focuses on the improvement of pseudo-adiabatic estimation of precipitable water in the estimation of possible maximum precipitation after comparative analysis of the three methods. The conclusions are verified by the results of the precipitation in the whole country. Finally, the application of the improvement measures is discussed with the PMP estimation of Hong Kong as an example. By using sounding method, pseudo-adiabatic method and empirical formula method, the precipitable water amount of five provinces along the southeast coast is calculated. It is found that the three kinds of atmospheric precipitable water have good correlation and can be used in practical work. But the result of empirical formula method is small, and the precipitation calculated by pseudo-adiabatic method is larger, and the deviation varies with the change of latitude, the lower the latitude, the greater the relative error of precipitation calculated by pseudo-adiabatic method. Therefore, latitude correction should be carried out when PMP is estimated by rainstorm shifting method. By using the precipitation data of Hong Kong every five minutes to analyze the precipitation climatic conditions in Hong Kong, the method and scheme of estimating PMP in Hong Kong are proposed. The local rainstorm amplification method and the improved rainstorm relocation method were used to estimate the PMP in Hong Kong for 4 hours and 24 hours. Finally, the estimated maximum precipitation results are analyzed reasonably in terms of methods and results, compared with the rainstorm records at the southeast coastal points of China and the world historical rainstorm records, and compared with the frequency analysis results. It is concluded that the results are reasonable and reliable PMP results are recommended for engineering design.
【学位授予单位】：南京信息工程大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：P333.2

【参考文献】