城镇化进程中用水量增长的门槛效应与动态作用机制分析
发布时间:2018-08-17 17:39
【摘要】:城镇化是发展中国家21世纪的主要发展趋势,在很大程度上主导着人口、经济和产业结构等各方面的转变,成为拉动用水量增长的关键因素。城镇化进程中城镇居民收入、人口结构、人口密度和人力资本等因素的变化,使得城镇化并非表现为线性发展规律,最终导致用水量也存在相应的门槛效应并呈现阶段性增长特征。本文首先对我国各地区城镇化水平和用水量进行统计分析,从地区层面直观描述我国城镇化水平和用水量的变化特征,然后采用面板门槛模型研究城镇化、城镇居民人均收入、人力资本、城市人口密度和人口年龄结构对于用水量的门槛效应,搜寻在城镇化进程中各人口因素对用水量影响的门槛点并分析阶段性变化特征,最后结合PVAR模型研究城镇化进程中各人口因素对用水量的动态影响和作用机制。门槛回归结果发现:城镇化对用水量的影响具有明显的阶段性特征,分别以城镇化和人均收入为门槛变量,超越门槛点后城镇化对用水量的弹性系数分别呈现先升后降的倒"U"型和先降后升的正"U"型变化趋势;以人力资本为门槛变化量,城镇化对用水量的拉动作用则不断减弱。脉冲响应结果显示:城镇化对用水量具有长期且稳定的正向冲击,而居民收入和人口年龄结构对用水量的正向冲击则逐渐收敛于零,人口密度和人力资本对用水量均具有负向冲击,且人口密度的负效应不断增强,而人力资本的负效应不断减弱。方差分解的结果表明,目前我国用水量的增长受自身的影响较大,除年龄结构外,人口密度、居民收入、人力资本和城镇化也具有小规模的贡献程度。
[Abstract]:Urbanization is the main development trend of developing countries in the 21st century, and to a large extent, it leads to the transformation of population, economy and industrial structure, and becomes the key factor to promote the growth of water consumption. This paper firstly makes a statistical analysis of the level of urbanization and water consumption in various regions of China, describes the change characteristics of urbanization level and water consumption intuitively from the regional level, and then uses the panel threshold model to study the city. The threshold effect of urbanization, per capita income of urban residents, human capital, urban population density and population age structure on water consumption is studied. The threshold points of population factors affecting water consumption in the process of urbanization are searched and the characteristics of periodic changes are analyzed. Finally, the dynamics of population factors on water consumption in the process of urbanization is studied with PVAR model. The results of threshold regression show that the impact of urbanization on water consumption has obvious periodic characteristics, and the elasticity coefficient of urbanization on water consumption shows an inverted U-shaped trend of first rising and then falling and a positive U-shaped trend of first falling and then rising, respectively, with urbanization and per capita income as threshold variables. The results of impulse response show that urbanization has a long-term and stable positive impact on water consumption, while the positive impact of residents'income and population age structure on water consumption gradually converges to zero, population density and human capital have a negative impact on water consumption. The results of variance decomposition show that the growth of water consumption in China is greatly influenced by itself, besides age structure, population density, resident income, human capital and urbanization also have small-scale contribution.
【作者单位】: 河海大学商学院;河海大学企业管理学院;常州大学商学院;
【基金】:国家社会科学基金项目“用水效率异质特征下跨区域多部门水权配置及政策”(批准号:14BGL097),“基于降雨量指数保险的农业干旱风险控制及对策研究”(批准号:15BGL128) 2014年度江苏高校“青蓝工程”优秀青年骨干教师培养对象资助项目“多区域多部门的水权配置研究” 2016年度江苏省“333工程”第三层次人才培养项目“虚拟水与实体水的空间配置研究”
【分类号】:TV213.4
,
本文编号:2188393
[Abstract]:Urbanization is the main development trend of developing countries in the 21st century, and to a large extent, it leads to the transformation of population, economy and industrial structure, and becomes the key factor to promote the growth of water consumption. This paper firstly makes a statistical analysis of the level of urbanization and water consumption in various regions of China, describes the change characteristics of urbanization level and water consumption intuitively from the regional level, and then uses the panel threshold model to study the city. The threshold effect of urbanization, per capita income of urban residents, human capital, urban population density and population age structure on water consumption is studied. The threshold points of population factors affecting water consumption in the process of urbanization are searched and the characteristics of periodic changes are analyzed. Finally, the dynamics of population factors on water consumption in the process of urbanization is studied with PVAR model. The results of threshold regression show that the impact of urbanization on water consumption has obvious periodic characteristics, and the elasticity coefficient of urbanization on water consumption shows an inverted U-shaped trend of first rising and then falling and a positive U-shaped trend of first falling and then rising, respectively, with urbanization and per capita income as threshold variables. The results of impulse response show that urbanization has a long-term and stable positive impact on water consumption, while the positive impact of residents'income and population age structure on water consumption gradually converges to zero, population density and human capital have a negative impact on water consumption. The results of variance decomposition show that the growth of water consumption in China is greatly influenced by itself, besides age structure, population density, resident income, human capital and urbanization also have small-scale contribution.
【作者单位】: 河海大学商学院;河海大学企业管理学院;常州大学商学院;
【基金】:国家社会科学基金项目“用水效率异质特征下跨区域多部门水权配置及政策”(批准号:14BGL097),“基于降雨量指数保险的农业干旱风险控制及对策研究”(批准号:15BGL128) 2014年度江苏高校“青蓝工程”优秀青年骨干教师培养对象资助项目“多区域多部门的水权配置研究” 2016年度江苏省“333工程”第三层次人才培养项目“虚拟水与实体水的空间配置研究”
【分类号】:TV213.4
,
本文编号:2188393
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