洮河水资源开发现状与演变过程

发布时间：2018-08-19 15:19

【摘要】：洮河流域位于甘肃西南部,是黄河上游的重要支流。地势南高北低,地形从青藏高原至黄土高原,特征差异明显,上游湿润多雨,下游干燥少雨。本文以该流域为研究对象,评价了流域自然环境状况、社会经济发展状况,水资源总量及开发利用状况;利用洮河干流测站自建站至2015年实测月降水、径流资料,运用Mann-Kendall检验法、小波分析法分析洮河流域水资源变化特征;利用国际主流的6种ENSO指数,通过延时相关性分析方法,计算并分析了ENSO指数与流域降水、径流的相关性;本文选取阿拉伯海、孟加拉湾、中国南海三处位于亚洲周边海域的海表温度数据,通过延时相关性分析方法,计算并分析了其与洮河流域降水、径流的相关性;最后利用国内主流的几种生态径流计算方法计算了洮河干流最小生态径流量。通过计算分析研究,主要结论如下:(1)当前流域水资源可利用量相对富裕,但流域用水量呈增长趋势,2010年—2014年年用水量平均增长率为3%。上游生态环境恶化使流域产流区产流能力下降。洮河流域降水量的变化趋势也显示出下降的态势。洮河径流量的变化具有15年的典型周期,以及5—7年的不明显周期。1989年以后,呈现出明显的减少趋势,1997年通过置信度为0.05显著性检验,径流量下降的趋势更加显著。(2)国际主流的ENSO指数中Nino1+2区海温指数与洮河流域降水、径流相关性最好,与各站降水量同期相关系数达到普遍在0.4以上,延时相关系数在0.7以上,达到中度相关水平;干流各站的径流量具有一致性,仅计算与红旗站径流量的相关系数,同期相关系数为-0.57,中度负相关。因此,Nino1+2指数相比其他ENSO指数能够较好的反映ENSO事件对洮河流域的影响,该指数作为一种新的影响因子用于研究全球气候对洮河水资源的演变影响。(3)洮河径流量与阿拉伯海、孟加拉湾、中国南海三处海域海表温度的相关性较低,但与孟加拉湾海温相关性较好。而中国南海、孟加拉湾的海表温度与洮河流域的降水量的相关性普遍较高,同期相关系数在0.5-0.7之间,延时相关系数最大值都出现在延时6个月,普遍在0.7以上,最大相关性是南海的海表温度与碌曲站的的降水量,延时相关系数高达-0.81,达到高度相关水平,且延时月数为稳定的6个月,对于洮河流域水资源可以进行6个月的预警期,意味着监测每年年初的南海海温状况可以得知夏季降水量的大致状况,这对于洮河水资源防汛、利用规划具有重要的现实意义。而阿拉伯海的海表温度与洮河流域的降水量的相关性相对较低。因此孟加拉湾、中国南海的海表温度可以作为亚洲季风对洮河流域的影响因子。海洋能够储存气候信息,所以海洋温度随着气候变暖而升高,本文研究发现,海温与流域降水、径流多呈现负相关,说明气候变暖的趋势下流域水资源量呈减少趋势。(4)全球变暖导致洮河流域水资源具有减少的趋势,流域上游因生态环境恶化产流能力具有下降的趋势,而流域用水量呈现着增长的趋势,因此,有必要划定水资源开发的红线,确定洮河应当具有的生态径流。应用多种生态径流计算方法计算比较分析后,确定以逐月最小径流法确定的月径流系列作为流域各测站监测洮河径流的预警值,该系列也可作为流域用水量的年内分配参考,避免水资源季节性开发过度。
[Abstract]:Taohe River Basin is located in the southwest of Gansu Province and is an important tributary of the upper reaches of the Yellow River.The topography is high in the South and low in the north.The topography is from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to the Loess Plateau.The characteristics of the Taohe River Basin are different obviously.The upper reaches are wet and rainy,the lower reaches are dry and rainless.This paper takes the Taohe River Basin as the research object,and evaluates the natural environment,the Using the data of monthly precipitation and runoff measured by Taohe main stream station from its establishment to 2015, using Mann-Kendall test method and wavelet analysis method to analyze the characteristics of water resources change in Taohe River basin, using six kinds of ENSO index of international mainstream, calculating and analyzing the correlation between ENSO index and basin precipitation and runoff through the method of delay correlation analysis. In this paper, the sea surface temperature data of the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea in the waters around Asia are selected, and the correlation between the sea surface temperature data and the precipitation and runoff in the Taohe River basin is calculated and analyzed by the method of delay correlation analysis. Through calculation and analysis, the main conclusions are as follows: (1) At present, the available water resources in the basin are relatively abundant, but the water consumption in the basin shows an increasing trend, with an average annual growth rate of 3% from 2010 to 2014. The deterioration of the upstream eco-environment makes the Runoff-Producing capacity of the basin decrease. The variation trend of precipitation in the Taohe basin also shows a downward trend. The variation of runoff in Taohe River has a typical period of 15 years and a non-obvious period of 5-7 years. After 1989, the trend of runoff decrease is obvious, and the trend of runoff decrease is more significant after the test of 0.05 significance of confidence in 1997. (2) The sea surface temperature index of Nino1+2 area in the ENSO index of the International mainstream, and the precipitation and runoff facies of Taohe River basin. The correlation coefficient is the best, and the correlation coefficients of precipitation synchronization with each station are generally above 0.4, and the delay correlation coefficients are above 0.7, reaching the moderate correlation level. As a new influencing factor, the index is used to study the effect of global climate on the evolution of water resources of Taohe River. (3) The correlation between the runoff of Taohe River and the sea surface temperature of the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea is relatively low, but it has a good correlation with the sea surface temperature of the Bay of Bengal. In the South China Sea and the Bay of Bengal, the correlation coefficient between the sea surface temperature and the precipitation in the Taohe River Basin is generally high, and the correlation coefficient is between 0.5 and 0.7 in the same period. The maximum value of the delay correlation coefficient appears in the delay of 6 months, which is generally above 0.7. The maximum correlation is between the sea surface temperature in the South China Sea and the precipitation at Luqu Station. The delay correlation coefficient is as high as - 0.81. It is of great significance for flood control and utilization planning of Taohe River water resources. The correlation between SST and precipitation in the Taohe River Basin is relatively low. Therefore, SST in the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea can be used as an impact factor of Asian monsoon on the Taohe River Basin. Negative correlation shows that the water resources in the basin are decreasing under the trend of climate warming. (4) The water resources in the Taohe River basin are decreasing due to global warming, and the runoff production capacity in the upper reaches of the basin is decreasing due to the deterioration of the ecological environment, while the water consumption in the basin is increasing. Therefore, it is necessary to draw a red line for water resources development. The monthly runoff series determined by the monthly minimum runoff method can be used as the early warning value for monitoring the runoff of the Taohe River. The series can also be used as a reference for the annual distribution of water consumption in the basin to avoid the seasonal overdevelopment of water resources.
【学位授予单位】：兰州交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TV213

【参考文献】