永定新河河口风暴潮对其右堤防洪保护区洪水风险影响分析

发布时间：2018-08-23 14:13

【摘要】：依托全国重点地区洪水风险图编制工作,以永定新河右堤防洪保护区为研究对象,采用MIKE 21/3 Coupled Model FM软件建立风暴潮模型进行洪水演进计算,分别对防洪保护区内遭遇100年一遇、200年一遇风暴潮情景下的淹没水深、范围、流速、历时等洪水风险要素进行分析,估算了由此产生的居民财产、农林牧渔、工商企业、交通运输、水利设施等方面的直接损失。结果显示,永定新河河口遭遇100年一遇风暴潮时,洪水淹没面积20.69 km~2,其中耕地淹没面积0.41 km~2,居民地淹没面积7.46 km~2,受影响人口2.05万人,受影响GDP达235.13亿元。永定新河河口遭遇200年一遇风暴潮时,洪水淹没面积增加17.79 km~2,耕地淹没面积增加1.66 km~2,居民地淹没面积增加3.77 km~2,受影响人口4.18万人,受影响GDP达630.10亿元。各方案洪水损失估算中,工业产值损失所占比重最大,约占65%,其次是商贸业主营收入,约占24%,其余指标在总损失中所占比例均较小。研究成果能够为区域洪水风险管理、防灾避险预案制定及防洪(潮)调度决策提供技术参考。
[Abstract]:Based on the compilation of flood risk maps in key areas of the country, taking the right dike flood protection area of Yongding River as the research object, the storm surge model is established by using MIKE 21 / 3 Coupled Model FM software for flood routing calculation. The flood risk factors, such as depth, scope, velocity and duration of flood in flood protection areas encountered once in 100 years and 200 years in storm surge scenarios, were analyzed, and the resulting residents' property, agriculture, forestry, herding and fishing, and industrial and commercial enterprises were estimated. Direct loss of transportation, water conservancy facilities, etc. The results show that the flood inundation area is 20.69 km2 in Yongding Xinhe River estuary once in 100 years, in which the cultivated land submergence area is 0.41 km / m ~ (-2), and the residential submergence area is 7.46 km / m ~ (2). The affected population is 20500 people, and the affected GDP is 23.513 billion yuan. When the Yongding New River estuary encounters storm surge once in 200 years, the inundation area of flood increases by 17.79 km2, the area of cultivated land submergence increases by 1.66 km2, and the submergence area of resident land increases by 3.77 km2. The affected population is 41800 people, and the affected GDP is 63.01 billion yuan. The loss of industrial output value accounts for the largest proportion in flood loss estimation, accounting for 65%, followed by the main business income, accounting for 24%, the other indicators in the total losses are smaller. The research results can provide technical reference for regional flood risk management, disaster prevention and risk prevention plan and flood control (tide) dispatching decision.
【作者单位】：中水北方勘测设计研究有限责任公司;
【分类号】：TV122;TV87

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