阿克苏河上游水资源变化及其对下游地区生态环境和社会经济的影响

发布时间：2018-08-23 21:28

【摘要】：塔里木盆地是我国优质棉种植高产稳产区、特色林果基地、能源战略基地和石化工业基地。为保证该区域国民经济和生态环境正常有序的发展,必须确保水资源的有效供给。阿克苏河是唯一常年向塔河输水的源流河,其全年水量的68%来自于吉国的萨雷扎兹河和阿克塞河,每年向塔里木河干流下泄水量占塔里木河干流来水量的75.6%。因此它的水量变化对下游社会经济发展的影响有着重要的现实作用和战略意义。本研究通过确定水资源输入阿克苏河的主要影响因素和变化规律,根据阿克苏河流域与塔里木河干流区的水资源利用现状,预测2020年、2030年阿克苏河流域与塔里木河干流区的农业、工业与生活需水量。采用统计学结构分析法,在设定塔里木河各流域供水量等于需水量的前提下针对吉国两河水资源开发利用方案,模拟了塔里木河流域不同供水方案,以此研究入境水量变化对我国塔里木河流域源流区和干流区生态环境和各产业生产发展的影响。研究结果表明阿克苏河上游水资源开发利用方案的实施,将大大降低塔里木河的来水量,导致塔里木盆地阿克苏河流域和塔里木河干流区水资源严重短缺,塔里木河干流上、中、下游发生季节性断流,打乱塔里木盆地阿克苏河流域和塔里木河干流区正常的分水配水机制,从而影响塔里木盆地内的社会稳定和农业、工业等各行业发展。塔里木河流域水资源短缺也将严重破坏盆地内的生态系统,致使大量生态林衰退,加剧土地沙漠化和土壤盐碱化,具有战略意义的“绿色走廊”将濒临消失,进一步制约塔里木盆地乃至整个新疆的社会经济和生态环境的可持续发展,阻碍国家全面向西开放及“丝绸之路经济带”战略构想的建设进程。
[Abstract]:Tarim Basin is a region of high quality cotton planting, high yield and stable production, characteristic forest and fruit base, energy strategic base and petrochemical industry base. In order to ensure the normal and orderly development of the national economy and ecological environment in the region, it is necessary to ensure the effective supply of water resources. Aksu River is the only perennial source river to the Tarim River. 68% of its annual water volume comes from the Sarezazi and Aksai rivers in Jiguo. The annual discharge to the main Tarim River accounts for 75.6 percent of the water coming from the Tarim River. Therefore, its water quantity change has important realistic function and strategic significance to the downstream social and economic development. By determining the main influencing factors and changing rules of water resources input into the Aksu River, according to the current situation of water resources utilization in Aksu River Basin and Tarim River main stream area, Forecast the agricultural, industrial and domestic water demand of Aksu River basin and Tarim River main area in 2020 and 2030. By means of statistical structure analysis, different water supply schemes of Tarim River basin are simulated under the premise that water supply is equal to water demand in Tarim River basin, aiming at water resources exploitation and utilization scheme of Jiguo and Jiguo rivers. In this paper, the influence of the change of water quantity on the ecological environment and the production and development of various industries in the source and main stream areas of Tarim River Basin in China is studied. The results show that the implementation of the water resources development and utilization scheme in the upper reaches of Aksu River will greatly reduce the amount of water coming from the Tarim River, resulting in a serious shortage of water resources in the Aksu River Basin and the Tarim River main area in the Tarim River. Seasonal disconnection occurs in the middle and lower reaches of Tarim Basin, disrupting the normal water distribution mechanism in Aksu River Basin and Tarim River main area, thus affecting the social stability and the development of agriculture and industry in Tarim Basin. The shortage of water resources in the Tarim River Basin will also seriously damage the ecosystem in the basin, resulting in the decline of a large number of ecological forests, exacerbating land desertification and soil salinization, and the "green corridor" of strategic significance will be on the verge of disappearing. It further restricts the sustainable development of social economy and ecological environment in Tarim Basin and Xinjiang as a whole, hinders the process of national opening to the west and the strategic conception of "Silk Road Economic Belt".
【学位授予单位】：新疆农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV213.4

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