基于CSRAM的引水隧洞施工进度风险分析

发布时间：2018-08-30 12:20

【摘要】：针对引水隧洞施工过程的潜在风险,采用WBS-RBS(Work Breakdown Structure-Risk Breakdown Structure)法对风险因素进行识别与量化,并从风险驱动活动时间不确定的角度出发,运用CSRAM(Correlated Schedule Risk Analysis Model)法,考虑风险因素相关性和活动持续时间相关性,研究风险因素概率分布,进行施工进度风险分析;通过调整风险因素概率边界,对风险因素进行了敏感性分析。研究弥补了现有隧洞工程进度风险分析缺乏对风险因素相关性、活动持续时间相关性和对不同风险因素的风险概率分布等方面研究的不足。工程实例表明,提出的基于CSRAM的引水隧洞施工进度风险分析方法能够分析诸多风险因素综合作用下的完工概率、关键路线等指标,并识别关键风险因素,为隧洞施工进度控制和风险管理提供有效的理论依据。
[Abstract]:In view of the potential risk in the construction process of diversion tunnel, WBS-RBS (Work Breakdown Structure-Risk Breakdown Structure) method is used to identify and quantify the risk factors, and CSRAM (Correlated Schedule Risk Analysis Model) method is used to analyze the potential risk factors in view of the uncertain time of risk-driven activities. Considering the correlation of risk factors and activity duration, the probability distribution of risk factors is studied, and the risk analysis of construction schedule is carried out, and the sensitivity of risk factors is analyzed by adjusting the probability boundary of risk factors. The research makes up for the deficiency of the existing risk analysis of tunnel schedule, such as the correlation of risk factors, the correlation of activity duration and the risk probability distribution of different risk factors. The engineering example shows that the proposed risk analysis method based on CSRAM can analyze the completion probability, key route and other indexes under the combined action of many risk factors, and identify the key risk factors. It provides an effective theoretical basis for tunnel construction schedule control and risk management.
【作者单位】：天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室;
【基金】：国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0401806) 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2013CB035906) 国家自然科学基金(51679165)
【分类号】：TV554

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