HYMOD模型的参数不确定性分析
发布时间：2018-09-07 14:28
【摘要】：本文首先通过全球水资源危机的话题引出水文模型研究的重要性,然后重点讨论了水文模型不确定性的相关内容。 本论文的研究部分选取香溪河流域数据,用普似然不确定性分析方法分析HYMOD模型参数不确定性,在得到90%不确定性预报结果的基础上,讨论了方法的优缺点,然后选取多准则似然函数的普似然不确定性分析方法对HYMOD模型进行参数不确定性分析。用模型90%置信区间的覆盖率和区间宽度讨论改进型普似然不确定性分析方法相对传统普似然不确定性分析方法的优势和不足。在考虑到多准则似然函数的选取和权重调节过程中的主观性,文章还讨论了在选取多准则似然函数作为判据时,各似然函数间权重变化对结果的影响。 文章最后对本研究相关内容将来研究方向做了一些展望。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the importance of hydrological model research is introduced through the topic of global water resources crisis, and then the related contents of hydrological model uncertainty are discussed. In the research part of this paper, the data of Xiangxi River basin are selected, and the parameter uncertainty of HYMOD model is analyzed by using the general likelihood uncertainty analysis method. The advantages and disadvantages of the method are discussed on the basis of 90% uncertainty forecast results. Then the general likelihood uncertainty analysis method of multi-criteria likelihood function is selected to analyze the parameter uncertainty of HYMOD model. Using the coverage and interval width of 90% confidence interval of the model, the advantages and disadvantages of the improved general likelihood uncertainty analysis method compared with the traditional general likelihood uncertainty analysis method are discussed. Considering the subjectivity of the selection of multi-criteria likelihood function and the process of weight adjustment, this paper also discusses the influence of the weight change of each likelihood function on the result when the multi-criteria likelihood function is selected as the criterion. At the end of the paper, some prospects are made for the research direction of this research.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：P334.92
本文编号：2228529
[Abstract]:In this paper, the importance of hydrological model research is introduced through the topic of global water resources crisis, and then the related contents of hydrological model uncertainty are discussed. In the research part of this paper, the data of Xiangxi River basin are selected, and the parameter uncertainty of HYMOD model is analyzed by using the general likelihood uncertainty analysis method. The advantages and disadvantages of the method are discussed on the basis of 90% uncertainty forecast results. Then the general likelihood uncertainty analysis method of multi-criteria likelihood function is selected to analyze the parameter uncertainty of HYMOD model. Using the coverage and interval width of 90% confidence interval of the model, the advantages and disadvantages of the improved general likelihood uncertainty analysis method compared with the traditional general likelihood uncertainty analysis method are discussed. Considering the subjectivity of the selection of multi-criteria likelihood function and the process of weight adjustment, this paper also discusses the influence of the weight change of each likelihood function on the result when the multi-criteria likelihood function is selected as the criterion. At the end of the paper, some prospects are made for the research direction of this research.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：P334.92
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