溃坝应急撤离研究与实践综述
发布时间：2018-09-17 11:52
【摘要】：溃坝撤离技术理论对编制撤离预案和指导撤离行动至关重要,目前研究主要集中在影响因素分析、溃坝洪水-人流-路径叠加分析、人员死亡数量规律统计等方面,但溃坝撤离基础数据不足,环境-地物-人群三元耦合过程中主要因素互馈机制不清,预警时间研究不深,相关理论发展受限。对近几十年溃坝撤离技术理论研究和实践进行综述,总结了国内外溃坝撤离实践和溃坝撤离影响因素、过程模拟、预案评价等主要成果,研究了预警时间和临界预警时间概念,展望了今后主要发展方向。应还原典型溃坝案例撤离过程,基于人类行为和社会组织机制揭示溃坝撤离系统动力学特征,探索临界预警时间与溃坝生命损失之间的定量关系,促进溃坝撤离技术理论与应用发展。
[Abstract]:The theory of dam-break evacuation technology is very important for drawing up the evacuation plan and guiding the evacuation action. At present, the research mainly focuses on the analysis of influencing factors, the analysis of flood-flow-path superposition, and the statistics of the number of deaths. However, the basic data of dam-break evacuation is insufficient, and the main factors in the process of the ternary coupling of environment, ground objects and population are fed each other. This paper summarizes the theoretical research and practice of dam-break evacuation technology in recent decades, summarizes the practice of dam-break evacuation and the influencing factors of dam-break evacuation at home and abroad, process simulation, and evaluation of pre-plan, studies the concept of early warning time and critical early warning time, and looks forward to the future. The evacuation process of typical dam-break cases should be restored. The dynamic characteristics of dam-break evacuation system should be revealed based on human behavior and social organization mechanism. The quantitative relationship between critical warning time and life loss of dam-break should be explored to promote the development of theory and application of dam-break evacuation technology.
【作者单位】： 南京水利科学研究院大坝安全与管理研究所;水利部土石坝破坏机理与防控技术重点实验室;长沙理工大学水利工程学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41671504;51509156)~~
【分类号】：TV122.4
[Abstract]:The theory of dam-break evacuation technology is very important for drawing up the evacuation plan and guiding the evacuation action. At present, the research mainly focuses on the analysis of influencing factors, the analysis of flood-flow-path superposition, and the statistics of the number of deaths. However, the basic data of dam-break evacuation is insufficient, and the main factors in the process of the ternary coupling of environment, ground objects and population are fed each other. This paper summarizes the theoretical research and practice of dam-break evacuation technology in recent decades, summarizes the practice of dam-break evacuation and the influencing factors of dam-break evacuation at home and abroad, process simulation, and evaluation of pre-plan, studies the concept of early warning time and critical early warning time, and looks forward to the future. The evacuation process of typical dam-break cases should be restored. The dynamic characteristics of dam-break evacuation system should be revealed based on human behavior and social organization mechanism. The quantitative relationship between critical warning time and life loss of dam-break should be explored to promote the development of theory and application of dam-break evacuation technology.
【作者单位】： 南京水利科学研究院大坝安全与管理研究所;水利部土石坝破坏机理与防控技术重点实验室;长沙理工大学水利工程学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41671504;51509156)~~
【分类号】：TV122.4
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