基于水文地质参数敏感度分析的水库渗漏量不确定性评价
发布时间：2018-10-05 13:04
【摘要】：岩溶地区地表水库与地下水有较为密切的水力联系,合理预测岩溶水库渗漏程度对工程设计与施工具有重要指导意义。以云南省某水库为例,在分析库区岩溶水文地质条件的基础上,利用USGS开发的Model Muse对水库扩建后受影响区域进行地下水数值模拟,并结合UCODE对渗透系数及入渗强度等参数进行敏感度分析。得出栖霞茅口组灰岩(P1q+m)的渗透系数等四个敏感度较高的参数。这些参数在合理取值范围内存在多个值会对预测水库渗漏量及渗漏等级产生较强影响。因此,在利用数值法预测水库的渗漏等级时,首先应对研究区做全面细致勘察,提升参数的准确性与可靠性。
[Abstract]:There is a close hydraulic relation between surface reservoir and groundwater in karst area. It is important to predict the seepage degree of karst reservoir reasonably for engineering design and construction. Taking a reservoir in Yunnan Province as an example, based on the analysis of the karst hydrogeological conditions in the reservoir area, the groundwater numerical simulation of the affected area after the expansion of the reservoir is carried out by using the Model Muse developed by USGS. The sensitivity of permeability coefficient and infiltration strength were analyzed with UCODE. The permeability coefficient of Qixia Maokou formation limestone (P1Q m) is obtained. The existence of several values in the reasonable range of these parameters will have a strong influence on the prediction of reservoir leakage and leakage grade. Therefore, in order to improve the accuracy and reliability of the parameters, the numerical method should be used to predict the leakage grade of the reservoir.
【作者单位】： 地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室(成都理工大学);中国电建集团成都勘测设计研究院有限公司;曲靖市水利电力勘测设计研究院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金面上项目(41472275);国家自然科学基金青年基金(41502237)资助
【分类号】：TV221.2;TV697
本文编号：2253494
[Abstract]:There is a close hydraulic relation between surface reservoir and groundwater in karst area. It is important to predict the seepage degree of karst reservoir reasonably for engineering design and construction. Taking a reservoir in Yunnan Province as an example, based on the analysis of the karst hydrogeological conditions in the reservoir area, the groundwater numerical simulation of the affected area after the expansion of the reservoir is carried out by using the Model Muse developed by USGS. The sensitivity of permeability coefficient and infiltration strength were analyzed with UCODE. The permeability coefficient of Qixia Maokou formation limestone (P1Q m) is obtained. The existence of several values in the reasonable range of these parameters will have a strong influence on the prediction of reservoir leakage and leakage grade. Therefore, in order to improve the accuracy and reliability of the parameters, the numerical method should be used to predict the leakage grade of the reservoir.
【作者单位】： 地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室(成都理工大学);中国电建集团成都勘测设计研究院有限公司;曲靖市水利电力勘测设计研究院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金面上项目(41472275);国家自然科学基金青年基金(41502237)资助
【分类号】：TV221.2;TV697
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