基于数据和黑箱建模理论的钱塘江涌潮自动检测与实时预报方法
发布时间：2018-10-11 12:33
【摘要】：钱塘江在杭州湾处呈现的喇叭口形状造就其独特的风景钱塘江大潮。但是，在人们领略大自然这一奇特魅力的同时，钱塘江涌潮也给人们带来了不可忽视的灾害，几乎每年都会发生多起钱塘江潮水卷人事件。如果能够实现对涌潮的准确预报，就可以增强防灾预案的针对性和可操作性，方便相关部门开展防潮工作，从而减少事故的发生。文中提出一种基于水位数据的“黑箱”建模方法，并在该方法的基础上开发了钱塘江涌潮自动检测与实时预报系统，其主要工作如下： （1）介绍了基于统计规律的涌潮预报方法、基于调和分析的涌潮预报方法和基于水动力学的涌潮预报方法。针对上述三种预报方法存在的问题，研究一种具有自学习、自适应功能的预报算法。文中提出了一种基于历史水位数据的“黑箱”建模方法，通过“黑箱”建模最终确定了判断涌潮到达的具体条件，并且提出了相应的涌潮分段实时预报方法，以满足钱塘江涌潮预报的需求。 （2）针对历史水位数据中存在的问题（数据扰动、不符合规律等），对钱塘江进行实地调研，分析流速辅助判断的必要性，并基于Android操作系统设计流速检测装置以采集SurfaceVelocity Radar (SVR)流速仪数据。对涌潮自动监测站进行了升级试点改造，新增SVR流速仪并设计适配器以消除紊流对流速测量的影响。 （3）将采集到的现场数据通过GPRS/GSM网络传输到水文站服务器。开发钱塘江涌潮预报软件，对文中提出的涌潮分段实时预报方法进行具体实现，并将预报结果存至实时预报数据库中，以便预报信息发布。 （4）为方便对涌潮实时预报信息的查看，对钱塘江涌潮实时预报网站进行设计开发。通过调用google地图以及文本形式两种方式，实现预报信息的显示模块；设计管理员控制模块，系统管理员可通过该网站对预报信息进行修正，方便其对涌潮预报信息的管理。 （5）对系统进行实际运行，，以测试该预报方法的性能。将预报结果与实际涌潮信息进行对比分析可知，文中提出的预报方法具有较高的精度，满足了人们对钱塘江涌潮实时预报的需求。
[Abstract]:Qiantang River in Hangzhou Bay in the shape of a bell-mouth to create its unique scenery Qiantang River tide. However, while people appreciate the peculiar charm of nature, the tidal current of Qiantang River also brings people disasters that can not be ignored. Almost every year, there are many incidents of people in Qiantang River. If the accurate prediction of tidal bore can be realized, the pertinence and maneuverability of disaster prevention plan can be enhanced, and it is convenient for relevant departments to carry out dampproof work, thus reducing the occurrence of accidents. In this paper, a "black box" modeling method based on water level data is proposed, and a system for automatic detection and real-time prediction of tidal bore in Qiantang River is developed on the basis of this method. The main work is as follows: (1) the methods of tidal bore prediction based on statistical law, tidal bore prediction method based on harmonic analysis and hydrodynamic method are introduced. Aiming at the problems of the three forecasting methods mentioned above, a prediction algorithm with self-learning and adaptive function is studied. In this paper, a "black box" modeling method based on historical water level data is proposed. Through the "black box" modeling, the specific conditions for judging the arrival of tidal bore are finally determined, and the corresponding real-time prediction method of tidal bore section is put forward. In order to meet the demand of tidal bore forecast in Qiantang River. (2) in view of the problems existing in the historical water level data (data disturbance, not in accordance with the law, etc.), the paper carries out field investigation on Qiantang River, and analyzes the necessity of velocity assistant judgment. And based on the Android operating system, the device is designed to collect the data of SurfaceVelocity Radar (SVR) current meter. The automatic monitoring station of tidal bore was upgraded and the SVR current meter was added and an adapter was designed to eliminate the impact of turbulence on the velocity measurement. (3) the collected field data was transmitted to the hydrologic station server via the GPRS/GSM network. The software for forecasting tidal bore in Qiantang River is developed, and the method of real-time forecast of tidal bore in this paper is realized in detail, and the forecast results are stored in the real time forecast database. (4) for the convenience of viewing the real-time forecast information of tidal bore, the real-time forecasting website of tidal bore in Qiantang River is designed and developed. By calling google map and text form, the display module of forecast information is realized, and the administrator control module is designed, and the system administrator can modify the forecast information through the website. It is convenient to manage the tidal bore forecast information. (5) the system is operated in practice to test the performance of the forecasting method. By comparing the forecast results with the actual tidal bore information, it can be seen that the method proposed in this paper has a high accuracy and meets the demand of real time forecast of tidal bore in Qiantang River.
【学位授予单位】：杭州电子科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：P332.3;P338
本文编号：2264211
[Abstract]:Qiantang River in Hangzhou Bay in the shape of a bell-mouth to create its unique scenery Qiantang River tide. However, while people appreciate the peculiar charm of nature, the tidal current of Qiantang River also brings people disasters that can not be ignored. Almost every year, there are many incidents of people in Qiantang River. If the accurate prediction of tidal bore can be realized, the pertinence and maneuverability of disaster prevention plan can be enhanced, and it is convenient for relevant departments to carry out dampproof work, thus reducing the occurrence of accidents. In this paper, a "black box" modeling method based on water level data is proposed, and a system for automatic detection and real-time prediction of tidal bore in Qiantang River is developed on the basis of this method. The main work is as follows: (1) the methods of tidal bore prediction based on statistical law, tidal bore prediction method based on harmonic analysis and hydrodynamic method are introduced. Aiming at the problems of the three forecasting methods mentioned above, a prediction algorithm with self-learning and adaptive function is studied. In this paper, a "black box" modeling method based on historical water level data is proposed. Through the "black box" modeling, the specific conditions for judging the arrival of tidal bore are finally determined, and the corresponding real-time prediction method of tidal bore section is put forward. In order to meet the demand of tidal bore forecast in Qiantang River. (2) in view of the problems existing in the historical water level data (data disturbance, not in accordance with the law, etc.), the paper carries out field investigation on Qiantang River, and analyzes the necessity of velocity assistant judgment. And based on the Android operating system, the device is designed to collect the data of SurfaceVelocity Radar (SVR) current meter. The automatic monitoring station of tidal bore was upgraded and the SVR current meter was added and an adapter was designed to eliminate the impact of turbulence on the velocity measurement. (3) the collected field data was transmitted to the hydrologic station server via the GPRS/GSM network. The software for forecasting tidal bore in Qiantang River is developed, and the method of real-time forecast of tidal bore in this paper is realized in detail, and the forecast results are stored in the real time forecast database. (4) for the convenience of viewing the real-time forecast information of tidal bore, the real-time forecasting website of tidal bore in Qiantang River is designed and developed. By calling google map and text form, the display module of forecast information is realized, and the administrator control module is designed, and the system administrator can modify the forecast information through the website. It is convenient to manage the tidal bore forecast information. (5) the system is operated in practice to test the performance of the forecasting method. By comparing the forecast results with the actual tidal bore information, it can be seen that the method proposed in this paper has a high accuracy and meets the demand of real time forecast of tidal bore in Qiantang River.
【学位授予单位】：杭州电子科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：P332.3;P338
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