庐江县水资源承载力及配置研究

发布时间：2018-10-20 19:43

【摘要】：水是生命之源,是社会与经济发展不可或缺的基础资源,具有自然、社会、经济等多重属性。水资源开发利用与保护直接关系到经济社会发展、生态环境改善和广大人民群众的健康与生命安全。近年来,随着社会经济的发展和城市化进程的加快以及人口的迅猛增长,用水量和污水排放量不断增加,水资源开发与社会经济发展、生态环境保护之间的不协调十分突出,水资源已将逐步成为社会经济发展与生态环境保护的“瓶颈”。目前对水资源承载力及水资源配置的研究主要集中在省域或市域,对于县域内的研究成果较少。相较省域和市域来看,县域内对于水资源的开发利用及分配更加具体,研究对象也更加多元化。本文以庐江县为研究区,在充分收集现有资料的基础上,进行了大量的实地调研,对庐江县的水资源承载力及配置进行了研究。论文主要研究内容与成果如下:(1)建立了基于可拓云理论的水资源承载力综合评价模型,引入了级别变量特征值,并定义了弱载度的概念。级别变量特征值可对综合判定等级进行补充分析;通过弱载度进行弱载因子的筛选,可直可观地对削弱水资源承载力的指标进行识别。(2)对庐江县2010年~2014年的水资源承载力进行了定量分析,并结合雷达图及Arcgis绘制的分布图等形式进行了横、纵向对比。结果表明,近几年其水资源开发利用程度、水环境状况、社会发展状况及经济发展状况都有不同程度的进步,呈现稳步发展的态势,现状庐江县水资源承载力处于一般承载水平,社会经济与水资源的发展较为协调,要注意在发展的过程中提高生活、工业的节水意识,并重视县域内的耗水情况及生态环境用水情况,实现水资源的可持续利用。(3)采用综合性水资源数学模拟软件MIKE HYDRO中的BASIN模块,建立庐江县水资源配置模型,进行了规划年三次供需平衡的模拟、分析。结果表明,三次供需平衡条件下,研究区规划年缺水量大幅降低,但枯水年份仍存在较大缺口,2030年庐江县95%保证率下缺水量为4.32亿m3,必须积极寻求境外水源,同时开展节水型社会建设,全面提高用水效率,治污挖潜,开源与节流并举,才能从根本上解决庐江县的缺水问题。(4)采用可拓云模型对规划年水资源配置后的承载力进行了评价,评价结果表明,在规划条件下,规划年水资源承载力与2014年一致,均为一般承载情况,较弱承载指标主要分布在准则层水资源开发利用程度的各个指标内,在社会经济稳步发展的过程中水资源承载空间未出现明显下降趋势,生态环境得到进一步重视,水资源可持续发展的趋势较好。
[Abstract]:Water is the source of life and an indispensable basic resource for social and economic development. It has many attributes, such as nature, society and economy. The exploitation and protection of water resources are directly related to the development of economy and society, the improvement of ecological environment and the health and safety of the people. In recent years, with the development of social economy, the acceleration of urbanization process and the rapid growth of population, the amount of water used and the discharge of sewage have been increasing continuously. The incoordination between water resources development and social and economic development, and the protection of ecological environment is very prominent. Water resources will gradually become the bottleneck of social economic development and ecological environment protection. At present, the research on water resources carrying capacity and water resources allocation is mainly focused on the province or the city, but the research results of the county area are less. Compared with provinces and cities, the development, utilization and distribution of water resources in county areas are more specific, and the research objects are more diversified. This paper takes Lujiang County as the research area, on the basis of fully collecting the existing data, carries out a lot of field investigation, and studies the carrying capacity and allocation of water resources in Lujiang County. The main contents and achievements of this paper are as follows: (1) the comprehensive evaluation model of water resources carrying capacity based on extension cloud theory is established, and the eigenvalue of grade variables is introduced, and the concept of weak load degree is defined. The eigenvalue of the class variable can be used to supplement the comprehensive judgment grade, and the weak load factor can be screened by the weak load degree. (2) quantitative analysis of water resources carrying capacity from 2010 to 2014 is carried out in Lujiang County, and horizontal and vertical comparison is made in combination with radar map and distribution map drawn by Arcgis. The results show that in recent years, the development and utilization of water resources, the water environment, the social development and the economic development have made progress in different degrees, showing a steady trend of development. The carrying capacity of water resources in Lujiang County is at the general carrying capacity level, and the development of social economy and water resources is relatively coordinated. Attention should be paid to raising the consciousness of saving water in life and industry during the process of development. In order to realize the sustainable utilization of water resources, the water consumption and ecological water use in the county area are emphasized. (3) the water resources allocation model of Lujiang County is established by using the BASIN module of MIKE HYDRO, a comprehensive mathematical simulation software for water resources. The simulation and analysis of supply and demand balance of three times in planning year are carried out. The results show that under the condition of the balance of supply and demand, the annual water shortage in the study area is greatly reduced, but there is still a big gap in the dry year. Under the guarantee rate of 95% in Lujiang County in 2030, the water shortage is 432 million m3, so it is necessary to actively seek overseas water sources. At the same time, we should carry out the construction of water-saving society, comprehensively improve the efficiency of water use, harness pollution and tap potential. Finally, the problem of water shortage in Lujiang County can be solved fundamentally. (4) the capacity of water resources allocation in planning year is evaluated by using extension cloud model. The evaluation results show that the capacity of water resources in planning year is the same as that in 2014. The weak bearing index is mainly distributed in each index of the water resources exploitation and utilization degree in the criterion layer, and there is no obvious downward trend in the carrying space of water resources during the steady development of social economy. Further attention has been paid to the ecological environment, and the trend of sustainable development of water resources is better.
【学位授予单位】：合肥工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TV213.4

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