2000年以来黄河流域干支流水沙变化趋势及其成因分析

发布时间：2018-10-22 09:27

【摘要】：鉴于2000年以来黄河流域的水沙特征发生了较大变化,采用M-K检验法对黄河干支流主要水文站2000~2014年的水沙资料进行分析,探究了干支流水沙的变化趋势及成因,并结合Yamamoto突变检验法进一步判断出更可靠的突变点。结果表明,与1950~2000年相比,干流各水文站径流量的减小比例沿程增大,支流水沙的减幅均大于干流;头道拐至潼关间的支流是影响该河段输沙量变化的主要因素,而龙门至潼关站间,渭河对该段干流的径流量影响较大;经Yamamoto突变检验法诊断后,排除20个虚假点,发现黄河干流径流量和输沙量在2000~2014年间分别出现5、6次强突变,而支流突变点分布散乱,与干流间无明显关系;干流径流量自2004年后为增加趋势,其M-K值于2010年后突破临界值上限1.96;中游年输沙量在2003年前均为增加趋势,2005年后呈减小趋势且在2008年后均突破临界值下限。
[Abstract]:In view of the great changes in the characteristics of water and sediment in the Yellow River basin since 2000, the water and sediment data of the main hydrological stations of the main tributaries of the Yellow River from 2000 to 2014 were analyzed by M-K test method, and the changing trend and causes of the water and sediment in the main tributaries were explored. The more reliable mutation point was determined by Yamamoto mutation test. The results show that, compared with 1950 ~ 2000, the decreasing ratio of runoff of each hydrologic station in the main stream increases along the course, and the decreasing amplitude of the supporting sediment is larger than that of the main stream, and the tributaries between the headway and Tongguan are the main factors affecting the change of the sediment discharge in the reach. From Longmen to Tongguan station, the Weihe River has a great influence on the runoff of the main stream, and after the diagnosis of Yamamoto mutation test, 20 false points are excluded, and it is found that the runoff and sediment discharge of the main stream of the Yellow River have five or six strong abrupt changes in the period of 2000 ~ 2014, respectively. However, the distribution of sudden change points of tributaries was scattered and had no obvious relationship with the main stream, and the runoff of the main stream had an increasing trend since 2004, The M-K value broke through the upper limit of the critical value 1.96 after 2010, and the annual sediment discharge in the middle reaches increased before 2003, decreased after 2005 and exceeded the lower limit of critical value after 2008.
【作者单位】：武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室;
【基金】：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2010CB429002)
【分类号】：P333

【相似文献】