气候变化对防洪安全影响研究面临的机遇与挑战

发布时间：2018-11-02 07:22

【摘要】：全球气候变化背景下的防洪安全影响是国内外关注的热点问题。随着气候变暖、城镇化快速发展对地区强降水、洪涝等极端事件的影响,未来中国防洪安全保障将面临新的挑战。针对中国面临的严重洪涝灾害问题,阐述了从全球到中国气候变化对洪涝灾害影响的事实,综述了国内外最新的研究进展与前沿问题。最后提出了应对气候变化减少洪涝灾害的若干对策与建议:应加强气候变化对极端水文事件影响的基础研究,包括对水文非稳态(降水、洪水)序列和突变过程、非线性问题,陆地水文-区域气候耦合模式及气候变化影响下水循环要素时空变异与不确定性的研究;应加强应对气候变化防洪减灾的适应性对策研究,包括对气候变化影响的流域防洪规划适应性管理及气候影响的适应性能力和适应性方式的研究。以上对策与建议可为未来中国开展气候变化影响下的防洪安全研究提供借鉴。
[Abstract]:The impact of flood control in the context of global climate change is a hot issue at home and abroad. With the climate warming and the rapid development of urbanization, China will face new challenges in flood control security in the future because of its impact on regional extreme events such as heavy precipitation, flood and waterlogging. In view of the serious flood and waterlogging disaster in China, this paper expounds the fact that climate change affects the flood disaster from the whole world to China, and summarizes the latest research progress and frontier problems at home and abroad. Finally, some countermeasures and suggestions to reduce flood and waterlogging disaster are put forward: basic research on the impact of climate change on extreme hydrological events should be strengthened, including hydrological unsteady state (precipitation, flood) sequence and abrupt process, nonlinear problems, etc. Study on the coupling model of terrestrial hydrology and regional climate and the temporal and spatial variability and uncertainty of the elements of the water cycle affected by climate change; It is necessary to strengthen the study of adaptive countermeasures for flood control and mitigation of climate change, including the adaptive management of basin flood control planning and the study of adaptive ability and mode of climate impact. The above countermeasures and suggestions can be used for reference in the future study of flood control safety under the influence of climate change in China.
【作者单位】：武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室;武汉大学水安全研究院;水资源安全保障湖北省协同创新中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41571028;51279140)
【分类号】：P467;TV87

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