水电工程应急能力评估方法研究

发布时间：2018-11-08 08:54

【摘要】：在新中国建国60多年以来，我国水电事业得到了长足的发展，水电工程项目的数量和规模急剧增长，水电工程的建设和实施对国家经济的发展、社会的进步以及区域地方经济的发展都起到了举足轻重的作用。但是由于水电工程所处地理环境繁复多样、施工技术难度大，突发事件时有发生。突发事件的发生将会对社会产生严重的负面影响、对生命和资产产生严重威胁，并且影响工程质量与计划的顺利实施。因此，针对水电工程建设中可能出现的突发事件，建设和完善水电工程应急管理体系就显得尤为重要。进行应急能力评估工作是水电工程应急管理能力建设的基础性工作，制定一套合理的应急能力评估指标体系，对水电工程进行全面的应急能力评估，就成为我国水电应急管理部门所面对的紧迫课题。本文首先在综述国内外突发事件应急能力评估文献的基础上，根据水电工程自身的特点，按照行业要求的评估指标设计原则，提出了水电工程突发事件应急能力评估指标体系，并利用粗糙集方法对该指标体系进行精简；然后，在对比了常用应急能力评估方法的基础上，针对单纯使用BP神经网络方法所造成评估结果不稳定的缺点和D-S证据理论在水电工程应急能力评估中存在初始概率分布难以确定的弊端，将D-S证据理论和BP神经网络两种理论方法相结合，构建了基于证据理论和BP神经网络的水电工程应急能力评估模型框架，该评估模型主要包括样本初始数据的获取、样本数据归一化处理、各层指标权重的确定以及最终评估结果的计算。最后，结合评估结果进行讨论和剖析，，提出了改善及优化的对策和建议，为现实实践中的水电工程应急能力评估及优化提供理论依据和指导。
[Abstract]:Since the founding of the people's Republic of China more than 60 years ago, the hydropower industry in China has been greatly developed, the number and scale of hydropower projects have increased dramatically, and the construction and implementation of hydropower projects have brought about the development of the national economy. Social progress and regional local economic development have played a pivotal role. However, because of the complex geographical environment and difficult construction technology of hydropower project, unexpected events occur from time to time. The occurrence of unexpected events will have a serious negative impact on the society, a serious threat to life and assets, and will affect the quality of the project and the smooth implementation of the plan. Therefore, it is very important to build and perfect the emergency management system for hydropower engineering. The evaluation of emergency capability is the basic work of the construction of emergency management capacity of hydropower project. A set of reasonable evaluation index system of emergency capability is formulated to evaluate the ability of emergency response of hydropower project in an all-round way. It has become an urgent task faced by the hydropower emergency management department in our country. On the basis of summarizing the domestic and foreign literature on emergency capability evaluation, according to the characteristics of hydropower project and the design principle of evaluation index, this paper puts forward the evaluation index system of emergency response ability of hydropower project. And the rough set method is used to simplify the index system. Then, on the basis of comparing the common methods of emergency capability evaluation, In view of the shortcomings of the instability of evaluation results caused by using BP neural network method alone and the shortcomings of D-S evidence theory in evaluating the emergency capacity of hydropower projects, the initial probability distribution is difficult to determine. Combining D-S evidence theory and BP neural network theory, a model framework of hydropower engineering emergency capability evaluation based on evidence theory and BP neural network is constructed. The evaluation model mainly includes the acquisition of sample initial data. Normalization of sample data, determination of index weights and calculation of final evaluation results. Finally, based on the discussion and analysis of the evaluation results, the countermeasures and suggestions for improvement and optimization are put forward, which provide theoretical basis and guidance for the evaluation and optimization of hydropower engineering emergency capacity in practice.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TP183;TV222

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