基于Copula函数的洪峰流量与洪水历时联合分布研究
发布时间：2018-11-17 08:04
【摘要】：基于Copula函数分析了oV江河大庙峡流域洪峰流量与洪水历时的联合频率分布特征,得出GumbelHougaard Copula函数可较好地拟合2者的相关关系,以及反映2变量在"且"和"或"组合情况下的发生频率和重现期。在同频率设计情况下,2变量发生组合受灾风险的概率很低。在同一重现期下的历时与不同重现期下的洪峰组合频率随重现期的减小而增大,5 a一遇洪峰对应的历时在31.7~40.2 h的可能性较大,10 a一遇的洪峰历时在45 h以上的概率较小。另外,当历时重现期低于200 a一遇时,流域遭遇200 a一遇以上洪峰的概率极低。
[Abstract]:Based on the Copula function, the joint frequency distribution characteristics of Hong Feng discharge and flood duration in the Damiaoxia basin of the oV River are analyzed. It is concluded that the GumbelHougaard Copula function can better fit the correlation between Hong Feng discharge and flood duration. It also reflects the occurrence frequency and recurrence period of the two variables under the combination of "and" or ". In the case of the same frequency design, the probability of combination disaster risk of 2 variables is very low. The frequency of Hong Feng combination increased with the decrease of recurrence period under the same recurrence period and different recurrence period, and the probability of the corresponding duration of 5 a encounter with Hong Feng was 31.7 ~ 40.2 h, and the frequency of Hong Feng combination increased with the decrease of recurrence period. The probability of Hong Feng lasting more than 45 hours in 10 a was smaller. In addition, when the duration of recurrence period is less than 200 a, the probability of encountered more than Hong Feng in 200 a is very low.
【作者单位】： 天津大学建筑工程学院;广东省水利水电科学研究院;
【基金】：广东省水利科技创新项目(2015-12)
【分类号】：TV122
[Abstract]:Based on the Copula function, the joint frequency distribution characteristics of Hong Feng discharge and flood duration in the Damiaoxia basin of the oV River are analyzed. It is concluded that the GumbelHougaard Copula function can better fit the correlation between Hong Feng discharge and flood duration. It also reflects the occurrence frequency and recurrence period of the two variables under the combination of "and" or ". In the case of the same frequency design, the probability of combination disaster risk of 2 variables is very low. The frequency of Hong Feng combination increased with the decrease of recurrence period under the same recurrence period and different recurrence period, and the probability of the corresponding duration of 5 a encounter with Hong Feng was 31.7 ~ 40.2 h, and the frequency of Hong Feng combination increased with the decrease of recurrence period. The probability of Hong Feng lasting more than 45 hours in 10 a was smaller. In addition, when the duration of recurrence period is less than 200 a, the probability of encountered more than Hong Feng in 200 a is very low.
【作者单位】： 天津大学建筑工程学院;广东省水利水电科学研究院;
【基金】：广东省水利科技创新项目(2015-12)
【分类号】：TV122
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