基于模糊综合评价的黑龙江省水资源承载力研究

发布时间：2018-11-20 09:44

【摘要】：在地球上所承载的人口数量不断增加、世界各国经济快速发展的背景下,全球性水资源危机爆发。加之温室效应,改变了地球上原有的大气环流特点,进而改变了水文循环过程,世界各地极端天气现象频发,使水资源在储量特点上和分布规律上都难以进行分析和掌控。所以,有关水资源问题的研究也越来越受到科研工作者们的重视。本文主要研究内容为黑龙江省水资源承载能力,即：在黑龙江省有限的水资源的条件下,以当前黑龙江省的生产水平和水资源开发能力,在确保生态环境不受破坏的前提下,最大限度的承载经济规模的能力。使用的分析计算方法是通过计算生产中使用到水资源的相关行业的GDP与各行业用水量的比值,得到各行业单位水资源使用产生的GDP值。在扣除城镇、农村居民生活用水和生态基本用水,其中包括：旱地生态需水和湿地生态需水,利用在某区域有限的水资源,设置不同行业所配置的水资源量为各自的线性优化目标,成为多目标优化函数的自变量,使用MATLAB7.1线性优化函数编程计算。优化函数通过多次迭代计算得出最优解及相应的几种可行的水资源配置方案。然后使用模糊综合评价方法,设定不同的评价指标,通过层次分析法确定各指标权重,将权重指标分级后,进行分级评分,最后综合评分最大值即为在评价指标的限定下的最优的水资源配置方案,即：该水资源配置方案是相对于其他四种方案更合理的方案。最后利用最优解中计算出的在不同行业配置的水资源量,计算各行业在优化配置水资源量后所应产出的GDP值,所得值即为黑龙江省水资源承载力。通过分析计算结果,表明优化配置水资源在不同行业的分配后,最大的生产GDP可达到实际生产值的15.3%。由线性优化公式中的不同行业的分配系数可以看出,第三产业单位水资源使用量所产生的GDP值最大,而且在模糊评价矩阵中与第三产业有关的指标系数矩阵评分值相对于第二产业相对较低,对环境的危害更小,但是由于受到市场需求量的影响,限制了水资源在第三产业中的配置份额。而水资源对于农业的配置应该设置一个最小值,为了确保农业产量可以保证人均粮食安全标准为最低要求。对第二产业的水资源分配应该在水资源充足的情况下尽量用于工业生产,以增大GDP产值。因此在当前有限的水资源系统下,通过最优配置达到一个最大的水资源承载经济、社会、环境的水平,保证生态环境不受损害的情况下最大承载的经济规模和人口数量。对政府对水资源管理进行有效决策和人类社会是否能够可持续发展都有着重要的意义。
[Abstract]:Under the background of the increasing population on the earth and the rapid development of the world economy, the global water resources crisis broke out. In addition, Greenhouse Effect has changed the original characteristics of atmospheric circulation on the earth, and then changed the hydrological cycle process. Extreme weather phenomena occur frequently in various parts of the world, which makes it difficult to analyze and control the reserve characteristics and distribution laws of water resources. Therefore, the research on water resources has been paid more and more attention by researchers. The main content of this paper is the carrying capacity of water resources in Heilongjiang Province, that is, under the condition of limited water resources in Heilongjiang Province, with the current production level and water resources development ability of Heilongjiang Province, under the premise of ensuring the ecological environment not to be destroyed, To maximize the capacity to support the size of the economy. The analysis and calculation method used is to calculate the ratio of GDP to water consumption of the related industries used in production, and to obtain the GDP value of water resources per unit of each industry. After deducting urban and rural household water and ecological basic water use, which include: dryland ecological water needs and wetland ecological water needs, the use of limited water resources in a given region, Setting the water resources allocated in different industries as their respective linear optimization objectives becomes the independent variable of the multi-objective optimization function. The MATLAB7.1 linear optimization function is used to program the calculation. The optimal solution and several feasible water resources allocation schemes are obtained by iterative calculation. Then the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to set different evaluation indexes. The weight of each index is determined by analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and then the weight index is graded and graded. Finally, the maximum comprehensive score is the optimal water resources allocation scheme under the limit of evaluation index, that is, the water resources allocation scheme is more reasonable than the other four schemes. Finally, the GDP value of water resources allocated in different industries is calculated by using the optimal solution, and the value of water resources carrying capacity of Heilongjiang Province is obtained by calculating the output GDP value of each industry after optimizing the allocation of water resources. The results of analysis and calculation show that after the optimal allocation of water resources in different industries, the maximum production GDP can reach 15.33% of the actual production value. From the distribution coefficient of different industries in the linear optimization formula, it can be seen that the GDP produced by the use of water resources per unit of the tertiary industry is the largest. Moreover, in the fuzzy evaluation matrix, the score value of the index coefficient matrix related to the third industry is relatively lower than that of the secondary industry, and the harm to the environment is less, but due to the influence of the market demand, It limits the allocation of water resources in the tertiary industry. The allocation of water resources for agriculture should be set a minimum value, in order to ensure agricultural output to ensure that per capita food security standards are the minimum requirements. The allocation of water resources to the secondary industry should be used as far as possible in industrial production under the condition of sufficient water resources in order to increase the output value of GDP. Therefore, under the current limited water resources system, we can reach a maximum economic, social and environmental level of water resources through optimal allocation, so as to ensure the largest economic scale and population number under the condition that the ecological environment is not damaged. It is of great significance for the government to make effective decisions on water resources management and whether the human society can develop sustainably.
【学位授予单位】：东北农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV213.4

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