耦合改进PERT和BBNs的堆石坝施工进度风险分析

发布时间：2018-11-23 13:18

【摘要】：传统的计划评审技术(PERT)考虑的三时估计值主观性偏强,没有考虑风险因素相关性对工序活动工期的影响,影响了工期仿真与风险评价的客观性以及分析结果的可靠性。本文建立了耦合改进PERT和贝叶斯信念网络(BBNs)的心墙堆石坝施工进度风险分析模型,首先利用BBNs推理功能推算工序活动风险因素相关性,同时分析工程进度风险;其次将三角模糊数和模糊测度Me方法相结合来对PERT进行改进,引入了决策者风险偏好指标;最后将该模型应用到实际工程,得到决策者风险偏好指数-工期-完工概率分布曲线,可用于指导施工决策。工程应用结果表明:与传统的PERT方法相比,耦合改进PERT和BBNs得到的仿真结果更加可靠,可为心墙堆石坝施工进度方案设计提供理论依据。
[Abstract]:The 03:00 estimate considered by the traditional planning review technology (PERT) is subjective, and the influence of risk factor correlation on the working procedure duration is not considered, which affects the objectivity of the time period simulation and the risk evaluation and the reliability of the analysis results. In this paper, the risk analysis model of construction schedule of core rockfill dam is established by coupling improved PERT and Bayesian belief network (BBNs). Firstly, the correlation of risk factors of working procedure activity is calculated by using BBNs reasoning function, and the risk of project schedule is analyzed at the same time. Secondly, the triangular fuzzy number and the fuzzy measure Me method are combined to improve the PERT, and the risk preference index of the decision maker is introduced. Finally, the model is applied to practical projects, and the decision maker's risk preference exponent-time-completion probability distribution curve is obtained, which can be used to guide construction decision. The results of engineering application show that the simulation results obtained by coupling improved PERT and BBNs are more reliable than the traditional PERT method and can provide theoretical basis for the construction schedule design of core rockfill dam.
【作者单位】：天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点试验室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金创新群体基金项目(51621092);国家自然科学基金项目(51439005) 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2013CB035906)
【分类号】：TV641.43;TV511

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