基于集对分析的大坝风险后果评价模型研究

发布时间：2018-11-27 09:17

【摘要】：大坝风险后果评价是大坝风险管理理论中极其重要但相对落后的一环,其研究内容主要包括生命损失及经济损失分析、社会影响评价、环境影响评价及风险后果综合评价。目前,针对溃坝生命损失和经济损失的研究成果较为丰富,而关于溃坝社会影响、环境影响及风险后果综合评价的研究则明显不足。本文依托于国家自然科学基金面上项目(51679222、51379192),针对大坝风险后果的复杂性、模糊性及不确定性,引入集对分析理论,对溃坝社会影响、环境影响和风险后果综合评价分别进行研究。主要工作和成果如下:(1)大坝风险后果及集对分析理论特点分析。分类梳理并总结了大坝风险后果的国内外研究现状,论述了大坝风险后果评价的主要特点,以及集对分析理论的方法特点、适用范围和应用背景,完成了集对分析理论对大坝风险后果评价的适用性分析。(2)溃坝社会影响评价。分析了溃坝行为特点和可能引起的社会影响内容,根据评价指标确定原则和步骤,建立以工程等级、风险人口、经济总量、城镇等级、重要设施、文化遗产为指标的溃坝社会影响评价指标体系并明确指标含义。拟定溃坝社会影响的5级评价标准。针对溃坝社会影响的复杂性和不确定性,建立基于集对分析的大坝溃决社会影响评价模型。将该评价模型应用刘家台水库大坝溃决事件中,并与基于模糊灰色理论评价模型的评价结果进行对比。(3)溃坝环境影响评价。确定了河道形态、水环境、土壤环境、植被覆盖、生物多样性、人文生态环境、污染工业7个方面作为溃坝环境影响评价指标并明确了指标含义。在已有研究基础上,并拟定了溃坝环境影响的5级评价标准,建立基于集对分析的溃坝环境影响评价模型。将该模型应用于沙河集水库,并将评价结果与基于模糊数学理论的评价结果进行对比分析,表明模型合理可行。(4)溃坝风险后果综合评价。针对大坝风险后果自身的不确定性、各评价内容的相互关联性及量纲不统一而造成的大坝风险后果综合评价困难的问题,建立基于集对分析的大坝风险后果综合评价模型。运用该模型对江西省5座水库大坝溃坝后果分别进行综合评价,并将评价结果与基于属性区间计算模型的评价结果进行对比分析,为大坝风险后果综合评价提供了一种新方法。
[Abstract]:Dam risk consequence assessment is an extremely important but relatively backward part in dam risk management theory. Its research contents mainly include life loss and economic loss analysis, social impact assessment, environmental impact assessment and comprehensive assessment of risk consequences. At present, the research on life loss and economic loss of dam-break is relatively rich, but the comprehensive evaluation of social impact, environmental impact and risk consequence of dam-break is obviously insufficient. Based on the project of National Natural Science Foundation of China (51679222 / 51379192), aiming at the complexity, fuzziness and uncertainty of dam risk consequences, this paper introduces the theory of set pair analysis to influence the society of dam break. Comprehensive assessment of environmental impact and risk consequences were studied separately. The main work and results are as follows: (1) the characteristics of dam risk consequence and set pair analysis theory. This paper classifies and summarizes the present research situation of dam risk consequence at home and abroad, discusses the main characteristics of dam risk consequence evaluation, and discusses the characteristics of the method, application scope and application background of the set pair analysis theory. The applicability analysis of set pair analysis theory to dam risk consequence assessment is completed. (2) Social impact assessment of dam break. The characteristics of dam break behavior and the content of possible social impact are analyzed. According to the evaluation index, the principles and steps are determined, and the engineering grade, the population at risk, the total economic volume, the urban grade and the important facilities are established. The index system of social impact assessment of dam break with cultural heritage as the index and the definition of the index. The fifth grade evaluation criteria for social impact of dam break are drawn up. In view of the complexity and uncertainty of social impact of dam break, a social impact assessment model of dam collapse based on set pair analysis is established. The evaluation model is applied to the dam collapse of Liujiatai Reservoir and compared with the evaluation results based on the fuzzy grey theory. (3) the environmental impact assessment of dam break. The river channel shape, water environment, soil environment, vegetation cover, biodiversity, humanistic ecological environment and pollution industry were determined as indicators of environmental impact assessment of dam break. On the basis of the existing research, the fifth grade evaluation standard of dam-break environmental impact is drawn up, and the assessment model of dam-break environmental impact based on set pair analysis is established. The model is applied to Shaheji reservoir, and the evaluation results are compared with those based on fuzzy mathematics theory. The results show that the model is reasonable and feasible. (4) Comprehensive evaluation of dam break risk and consequence. In view of the uncertainty of dam risk consequences and the difficulty of comprehensive evaluation of dam risk consequences caused by the interrelatedness of different evaluation contents and different dimensions, a comprehensive evaluation model of dam risk consequences based on set pair analysis was established. The model is used to evaluate the dam failure consequences of five reservoirs in Jiangxi Province, and the evaluation results are compared with those based on the attribute interval calculation model, which provides a new method for the comprehensive evaluation of dam risk consequences.
【学位授予单位】：郑州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TV122.4

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