潘家口水库汛限水位动态控制研究

发布时间：2018-12-06 13:13

【摘要】：水库的汛限水位,是水库在调度运行中协调防洪安全与兴利矛盾的重要参数。为了能够在更高的要求下确保防洪安全、实现洪水资源化,在通过充分利用水库的暴雨洪水预报信息的前提下,对水库汛限水位实行动态控制是提高水资源利用效率的有效途径。本文以潘家口水库为例,通过对水库实际调度运行经验的分析总结,进一步对潘家口水库汛限水位的动态控制进行研究。首先,在可行性和必要性方面分析了潘家口水库实现水库汛限水位动态控制;其次,通过分析流域暴雨、洪水特性和总结历年暴雨洪水的预报经验,论证了暴雨洪水预报信息在实施水库汛限水位动态控制中的可利用性;再次,通过水库预泄能力法来确定汛限水位的动态控制域,建立了汛限水位动态控制风险模型,该模型考虑了洪水预报误差,并采用预蓄预泄法结合预报信息制定潘家口水库汛限水位动态控制的运行方案;最后,结合水库调度的实际需要,建立水库汛限水位动态控制的风险与效益评价优选模型,并结合典型年资料验证了研究成果。
[Abstract]:The flood limit water level of reservoir is an important parameter to coordinate the contradiction between flood control safety and profit in the operation of reservoir. In order to ensure the safety of flood control and realize flood resource utilization under higher requirements, under the premise of making full use of rainstorm flood forecast information of reservoir, Dynamic control of reservoir limited water level is an effective way to improve the efficiency of water resources utilization. Taking Panjiakou Reservoir as an example, this paper further studies the dynamic control of flood limited water level in Panjiakou Reservoir by analyzing and summarizing the practical operation experience of the reservoir. Firstly, in the aspect of feasibility and necessity, the dynamic control of flood limited water level of Panjiakou reservoir is analyzed. Secondly, by analyzing the characteristics of rainstorm and flood and summing up the forecast experience of rainstorm and flood in the past years, the availability of rainstorm flood forecast information in implementing reservoir flood limit water level dynamic control is demonstrated. Thirdly, the dynamic control region of flood limit water level is determined by the method of reservoir pre-discharge capacity, and the risk model of flood limit water level dynamic control is established, which takes into account the flood forecast error. The pre-storage pre-discharge method combined with the forecast information is used to establish the dynamic control scheme of the flood limited water level in Panjiakou reservoir. Finally, according to the actual needs of reservoir operation, the risk and benefit evaluation model of reservoir flood limited water level dynamic control is established, and the research results are verified with typical annual data.
【学位授予单位】：华北水利水电大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TV697.13

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