土石坝安全风险评价方法及其应用研究
发布时间：2018-12-08 09:14
【摘要】：水库大坝具有蓄水发电、防洪防涝以及灌溉航运等作用,但同时水库大坝一旦溃决,其造成的危害也是巨大的。由于土石坝的优越性,其在我国乃至世界的坝堤建设中具有重要地位。由于外部条件改变、坝体结构设计缺陷等原因,日益凸显的土石坝安全性问题不可忽视。安全风险评价研究可评价出土石坝的安全状态,进而为水库大坝的安全管理与除险加固工作提供指导,保证土石坝的安全运行,保障人民的生命和财产安全。本文详细剖析了国内外水库大坝安全管理方法,总结了我国溃坝事故特点,对土石坝存在的风险机理进行分析,辨识出土石坝病险的影响因子,并根据每个影响因子之间的层次关系,构建出土石坝安全评价指标体系,再根据土石坝安全评价指标体系建立土石坝安全评价模型,进行风险评估。在土石坝安全风险评价中,数据有限且充满模糊性和随机性,很难从这样的数据中得到量化的评价结果,现有的土石坝安全评价理论方法往往忽略了评价过程的不确定性。由于影响因子对于评价对象的影响程度不同,每个影响因子都有自己的权重,也有自己的风险度,传统的层次分析法虽能表征影响因子的权重,但不能正确地表现判断的模糊性和随机性,而云模型可以弥补这个缺陷,针对传统的层次分析法的不足,将云模型应用到土石坝老化安全评价中,建立起基于AHP-云模型的土石坝老化安全评价模型,通过实例证明该方法可行有效。由于我国病险土石坝众多,不可能在同一时间对所有的病险大坝进行除险加固,因此需要按照病险和重要程度对水库进行合理排序,优先安排与防洪保安关系密切的水库的除险加固,但如何科学排序,目前尚未有定论。本文在已有的水库大坝安全排序研究基础上,构建了水库大坝安全风险排序体系,运用主成分分析法,对15个大坝的数据进行分析,得出了15座大坝的安全风险排序,证实技术上的可行性和有效性。最后,根据计算结果判断出病险大坝,并对病险大坝安全风险进行排序,为水库大坝除险加固决策提供可靠依据。
[Abstract]:Reservoir dam has the functions of water storage and power generation, flood control and waterlogging control, irrigation and shipping, but once the reservoir dam collapses, the damage caused by the dam is also great. Because of the superiority of earth-rock dam, it plays an important role in the construction of embankment in our country and even in the world. Due to the change of external conditions and defects in dam structure design, the increasingly prominent safety problems of earth-rock dams can not be ignored. The study of safety risk assessment can evaluate the safety state of earth-rock dam, and then provide guidance for the safety management and reinforcement of reservoir dam, ensure the safe operation of earth-rock dam, and guarantee the safety of people's life and property. This paper analyzes the methods of dam safety management at home and abroad, summarizes the characteristics of dam break accidents in China, analyzes the risk mechanism of earth and rock dams, and identifies the influencing factors of earth and rock dams. According to the hierarchical relationship between each influencing factor, the safety evaluation index system of earth-rock dam is constructed, and then the safety evaluation model of earth-rock dam is established according to the index system of earth-rock dam safety evaluation, and the risk assessment is carried out. In the safety risk assessment of earth-rock dams, the data are limited, fuzzy and random, so it is difficult to obtain the quantitative evaluation results from such data. The existing theoretical methods of safety evaluation of earth-rock dams often ignore the uncertainty of the evaluation process. Because the influence factor has its own weight and its own risk degree, the traditional analytic hierarchy process can represent the weight of the influence factor. However, the fuzzy and randomness of the judgment can not be correctly expressed, and the cloud model can make up for this defect. In view of the deficiency of the traditional analytic hierarchy process, the cloud model is applied to the evaluation of the aging safety of the earth-rock dam. A safety evaluation model for earth-rock dam aging based on AHP- cloud model is established. Examples show that the method is feasible and effective. Because there are so many earth and rock dams in our country, it is impossible to reinforce all the dams at the same time, so it is necessary to arrange the reservoirs reasonably according to the risk of disease and the degree of importance. Priority is given to the reinforcement of reservoirs which are closely related to flood control and security, but how to sort them scientifically has not yet been decided. In this paper, based on the existing research on dam safety ranking, the system of dam safety risk ranking is constructed. The data of 15 dams are analyzed by principal component analysis method, and the safety risk ranking of 15 dams is obtained. Verify technical feasibility and effectiveness. Finally, the dangerous dam is judged according to the calculation results, and the safety risk of the dam is ranked, which provides a reliable basis for the decision-making of dam reinforcement.
【学位授予单位】：西华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TV641;TV698
本文编号：2368094
[Abstract]:Reservoir dam has the functions of water storage and power generation, flood control and waterlogging control, irrigation and shipping, but once the reservoir dam collapses, the damage caused by the dam is also great. Because of the superiority of earth-rock dam, it plays an important role in the construction of embankment in our country and even in the world. Due to the change of external conditions and defects in dam structure design, the increasingly prominent safety problems of earth-rock dams can not be ignored. The study of safety risk assessment can evaluate the safety state of earth-rock dam, and then provide guidance for the safety management and reinforcement of reservoir dam, ensure the safe operation of earth-rock dam, and guarantee the safety of people's life and property. This paper analyzes the methods of dam safety management at home and abroad, summarizes the characteristics of dam break accidents in China, analyzes the risk mechanism of earth and rock dams, and identifies the influencing factors of earth and rock dams. According to the hierarchical relationship between each influencing factor, the safety evaluation index system of earth-rock dam is constructed, and then the safety evaluation model of earth-rock dam is established according to the index system of earth-rock dam safety evaluation, and the risk assessment is carried out. In the safety risk assessment of earth-rock dams, the data are limited, fuzzy and random, so it is difficult to obtain the quantitative evaluation results from such data. The existing theoretical methods of safety evaluation of earth-rock dams often ignore the uncertainty of the evaluation process. Because the influence factor has its own weight and its own risk degree, the traditional analytic hierarchy process can represent the weight of the influence factor. However, the fuzzy and randomness of the judgment can not be correctly expressed, and the cloud model can make up for this defect. In view of the deficiency of the traditional analytic hierarchy process, the cloud model is applied to the evaluation of the aging safety of the earth-rock dam. A safety evaluation model for earth-rock dam aging based on AHP- cloud model is established. Examples show that the method is feasible and effective. Because there are so many earth and rock dams in our country, it is impossible to reinforce all the dams at the same time, so it is necessary to arrange the reservoirs reasonably according to the risk of disease and the degree of importance. Priority is given to the reinforcement of reservoirs which are closely related to flood control and security, but how to sort them scientifically has not yet been decided. In this paper, based on the existing research on dam safety ranking, the system of dam safety risk ranking is constructed. The data of 15 dams are analyzed by principal component analysis method, and the safety risk ranking of 15 dams is obtained. Verify technical feasibility and effectiveness. Finally, the dangerous dam is judged according to the calculation results, and the safety risk of the dam is ranked, which provides a reliable basis for the decision-making of dam reinforcement.
【学位授予单位】：西华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TV641;TV698
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