高土石坝勘测设计—运行期工程风险评估与预警系统研发

发布时间：2018-12-12 00:19

【摘要】：土石坝在国民经济和生活中占有重要的地位,一旦失事将对坝区和下游人民群众带来不可估量的损失。尤其是水库库容大、装机容量大的高土石坝,失事带来的影响更广、更深,损失更大。本文通过结合风险评估与预警的相关理论和方法,开发了高土石坝勘测设计-运行期工程风险评估与预警系统。具体研究内容和成果如下:(1)基于勘测设计阶段信息建立三维大范围的可视化模型,采用数据库技术实现安全监测信息的存储与共享,建立了高土石坝安全监测信息模型。并详细说明了监测信息数据表结构以及可视化表达方式。(2)以实时监测数据为基础,提出了高土石坝实测性态实时评价方法。建立了普遍意义下的高土石坝实测性态指标体系,针对不同的底层评价指标根据经验法和数理统计法确定监控标准,采用层次分析法(AHP)确定指标动态权重,同时考虑变化过程中的指标危险程度的模糊性,通过模糊综合评价方法实现高土石坝实测性态实时评价。(3)以实测性态安全等级表示失事概率,根据国内外经验公式进行失事损失估计,采用当量法对生命损失、经济损失和社会环境影响进行归一化处理,确定损失等级,提出了以高土石坝实测性态安全等级和风险事故损失等级为指标,采用风险矩阵进行风险评估的方法。根据评价结果进行风险预警,及时采取有效的工程或非工程措施,将风险降到最低。(4)以糯扎渡水电站为例,研发了高土石坝勘测设计-运行期工程风险评价与预警系统。此系统共包括四个功能模块,分别为:系统信息管理模块、监测信息管理模块、风险评价模块以及风险预警模块。
[Abstract]:Earth-rock dam plays an important role in the national economy and life. Once the dam is wrecked, it will bring incalculable losses to the people in the dam area and downstream. Especially the high earth-rock dam with large reservoir capacity and large installed capacity brings wider, deeper and greater losses. Based on the theory and method of risk assessment and early warning, this paper develops a risk assessment and early warning system for high earth and rockfill dam during the period of investigation, design and operation. The specific research contents and results are as follows: (1) based on the information of survey and design phase, the 3D large-scale visualization model is established, and the storage and sharing of safety monitoring information is realized by using database technology, and the safety monitoring information model of high earth-rockfill dam is established. The structure of the monitoring information data table and the visual expression method are described in detail. (2) based on the real-time monitoring data, a real-time evaluation method for the measured behavior of high earth rockfill dam is proposed. In this paper, the index system of the measured behavior of high earth rockfill dam in general sense is established. According to the experience method and mathematical statistics method, the dynamic weight of the index is determined by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) (AHP). At the same time, considering the fuzziness of the dangerous degree of the index in the course of change, the real-time evaluation of the measured behavior of the high earth-rock dam is realized by the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. (3) the probability of failure is expressed by the safety grade of the measured behavior. According to the formula of experience at home and abroad, the loss of life, economic loss and social environment are normalized by equivalent method, and the loss grade is determined. This paper presents a method of risk assessment based on risk matrix based on the measured safety grade and risk accident loss grade of high earth-rock dam. According to the evaluation results, risk warning is carried out, and effective engineering or non-engineering measures are taken in time to reduce the risk to the minimum. (4) taking Nuozhadu Hydropower Station as an example, a risk assessment and early warning system for high earth-rock dam survey design and operation period is developed. The system consists of four functional modules: system information management module, monitoring information management module, risk evaluation module and risk warning module.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV641.1;TV698.1

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