新疆玛纳斯河流域用水结构演变及其驱动力分析

发布时间：2018-12-12 04:47

【摘要】：采用2000—2013年相关统计资料,结合信息熵理论分析玛纳斯河流域用水结构演变特征。将用水系统划分为农业、工业、生活三大类,根据子系统的用水特点,借助灰色关联分析方法量化工业、农业和生活用水变化各因子的关联度,找出主要驱动力因子。结果表明:受单一用水系统的影响,用水结构信息熵增长速度较慢,用水均衡度较低,用水倾斜现象明显。结合关联度发现,气候变暖、ET0的增长以及土地盐碱化是流域农业用水居高不下的内在驱动因子,灌溉面积、棉花播种面积、工业产值、重工业比重的增加以及城市化建设水平是用水增加的主要外在驱动因子,节水灌溉技术的推广、节灌面积的增加以及工业用水效率的提升是缓解流域水资源供需矛盾的润滑剂。
[Abstract]:Based on the relevant statistical data from 2000 to 2013 and the information entropy theory, the evolution characteristics of water use structure in Manas River basin were analyzed. The water use system is divided into three categories: agriculture, industry and daily life. According to the characteristics of water use in subsystems, the main driving factors are found out by quantifying the correlation degree of the factors of the change of industrial, agricultural and domestic water using grey relational analysis method. The results show that under the influence of a single water system, the information entropy of water structure increases slowly, the water balance is low, and the water inclination is obvious. It was found that climate warming, the increase of ET0 and the salinization of land were the internal driving factors of high water use for agriculture, such as irrigation area, cotton sown area, and industrial output value. The increase of heavy industry proportion and the level of urbanization are the main external driving factors of water use increase. The popularization of water-saving irrigation technology, the increase of saving irrigation area and the improvement of industrial water use efficiency are the lubricants to alleviate the contradiction between water supply and demand.
【作者单位】：石河子大学经济与管理学院;石河子大学农业现代化研究中心;
【基金】：2015年国家社科基金项目“丝绸之路经济带我国西北段城市群综合承载力研究”(15XJL020) 石河子大学农业现代化研究中心课题“玛纳斯河流域种植业用水结构分析及节水对策研究”(NYXDH1502)
【分类号】：TV213.4

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