气候变化对新安江水库调度影响与适应性对策

发布时间：2018-12-18 17:45

【摘要】：本文评估气候变化对径流和水库调度的影响,并基于未来气候变化情景下入库径流绘制适应性调度图。针对新安江水库控制区域,利用bcc-csm1.1气候模式输出驱动新安江月水文模型,生成2016—2045年RCP4.5情景下区域逐月径流过程,定量评估RCP4.5情景对径流和水库调度的影响,并基于RCP4.5情景下入库径流绘制适应性调度图。结果表明:与1971—2000年相比,2016—2045年RCP4.5情景下新安江水库控制区域年均径流减小4.96%,且径流年内和年际差异减小;水库多年平均发电量减小2.98%,且发电量年内分配改变;与历史调度规则相比,适应性调度规则可使RCP4.5情景下水库多年平均发电量增加0.54%,发电不确定性减小,单次平均弃水量减小19.62%,故适应性调度规则能够更好地适应RCP4.5情景,充分发挥水库效益。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the impacts of climate change on runoff and reservoir regulation are evaluated, and adaptive scheduling maps are drawn based on the future climate change scenarios. In view of the control area of Xinanjiang Reservoir, the monthly hydrological model of Xinanjiang River is driven by the output of bcc-csm1.1 climate model, and the monthly runoff process is generated under the RCP4.5 scenario of 2016-2045. The effects of RCP4.5 scenarios on runoff and reservoir operation were evaluated quantitatively, and adaptive scheduling maps were drawn based on RCP4.5 scenarios. The results show that compared with 1971-2000, the average annual runoff of Xinanjiang Reservoir in 2016-2045 decreased by 4.96 per year, and the annual and inter-annual differences of runoff in Xinanjiang Reservoir decreased in 2016-2045. The average power generation of the reservoir for many years decreases by 2.98 and the distribution of the electricity is changed in the year. Compared with the historical regulation, the adaptive regulation can increase the average generation capacity of the reservoir by 0.54 per year, decrease the uncertainty of generation, and reduce the water quantity of water disposal by 19.62in RCP4.5 scenario. Therefore, adaptive dispatching rules can better adapt to RCP4.5 scenarios and give full play to reservoir benefits.
【作者单位】：清华大学水利水电工程系;中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室;
【分类号】：TV697.11

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