乌溪江流域自动洪水预报系统研究与应用

发布时间：2019-01-04 12:32

【摘要】：由于预报模型的局限性和实时信息的不完善,洪水预报过程存在一定误差。利用自动预报模型和人工预报参数交互式修改相结合的方式可提高洪水预报精度。在乌溪江流域自动洪水预报系统研究中,采用径流系数控制前期雨量损失总量,通过调整雨量损失进行产流计算,根据时段降雨的降雨中心和降雨强度选用单位线进行汇流计算。同时在自动化洪水预报基础上配以预报人员的多年预报经验,完成可实时修正、高精度的实时洪水预报。以典型洪水预报为例,人工预报参数交互式修改方法的准确性较高,人工预报峰现时间相差1 h,人工预报洪峰流量误差为0.74%,预报精度等级为乙级。研究成果已在浙江省乌溪江流域自动洪水预报系统得到应用,对其他流域洪水预报具有参考价值。
[Abstract]:Because of the limitation of forecasting model and the imperfection of real time information, there are some errors in flood forecasting process. The accuracy of flood forecast can be improved by the combination of automatic forecasting model and interactive modification of artificial forecasting parameters. In the study of automatic flood forecasting system in Wuxi River Basin, the runoff coefficient is used to control the total amount of rainfall loss in the preceding period, and the runoff production is calculated by adjusting the rainfall loss. According to the rainfall center and the rainfall intensity, the unit line is selected to calculate the runoff concentration. At the same time, based on the automatic flood forecast, the real-time flood forecast with high accuracy and real time correction can be completed with the experience of the forecaster for many years. Taking typical flood forecast as an example, the accuracy of interactive modification method of artificial forecast parameters is high, the time difference of peak appearance of artificial forecast is 1 hour, the error of manual forecasting Hong Feng discharge is 0.74, and the forecast precision grade is grade B. The research results have been applied to the automatic flood forecasting system in Wuxi River Basin of Zhejiang Province, which has reference value for flood forecasting in other watersheds.
【作者单位】：三峡大学水利与环境学院;水资源安全保障湖北省协同创新中心;浙江华电乌溪江水力发电厂;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51409152)
【分类号】：P338

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