SWAT分布式模型在新兴江流域径流模拟中的应用研究

发布时间：2019-01-05 17:00

【摘要】：分布式水文模型是研究变化条件下流域水资源演变规律的有效工具。本文以新兴江流域为研究区域,整合流域下垫面信息与气象数据,基于GIS平台构建了SWAT分布式水文模型。选用腰古站1990-2003年历史月径流资料,对模型进行参数敏感性分析与率定,验证模型在流域的适用性,在此基础上,运用增量情景法,分析气候变化对流域径流产生的影响。结果表明:模型率定期与验证期的总径流相对误差均在±10%以内,Nash-Sutcliffe系数均在0.90以上,总体模拟效果十分理想;降水与气温的变化给流域径流带来不同程度的影响,径流量对降水变化的响应比气温更加敏感。通过径流模拟,SWAT模型可以为变化环境下新兴江流域的水资源规划与管理工作提供有效的参考依据。
[Abstract]:Distributed hydrological model is an effective tool to study the evolution of water resources under changing conditions. In this paper, a SWAT distributed hydrological model based on GIS platform is constructed by integrating the underlying surface information and meteorological data of Xinjiang river basin. Based on the monthly runoff data of Yaogu station from 1990 to 2003, the sensitivity analysis and rate determination of the model were carried out to verify the applicability of the model in the watershed. On the basis of this, the effect of climate change on runoff was analyzed by using incremental scenario method. The results show that the relative error of the total runoff between the model rate and the verification period is within 卤10%, and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient is above 0.90. The overall simulation effect is very good. The changes of precipitation and temperature have different effects on the runoff of the watershed, and the response of runoff to precipitation changes is more sensitive than that of temperature. Through runoff simulation, SWAT model can provide an effective reference for the planning and management of water resources in Xinjiang river basin under changing environment.
【作者单位】：河海大学水文水资源学院;河海大学水资源高效利用与工程安全国家工程研究中心;
【基金】：水利部公益性行业科研专项项目(201401034) 国家自然科学基金资助项目(51420105014)
【分类号】：P333

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