三峡库区水库滑坡成灾动态诱因判别研究

发布时间：2019-01-11 09:50

【摘要】：为确定水库滑坡静态本底因子与成灾动态诱因间的内在关联,建立基于水库滑坡静态本底因子的成灾动态诱因判别模型,以三峡库区丰都—巴东段100个水库滑坡为统计对象进行分析研究。首先建立水库滑坡静态本底因子体系,然后采用灰色关联理论计算水库滑坡静态本底因子与成灾动态诱因间关联度,最后利用支持向量机多分类原理,建立基于静态本底因子的三峡库区水库滑坡成灾动态诱因判别模型。研究结果表明:水库滑坡各静态本底因子与动态成灾诱因关联度从大到小排列顺序为岩层倾角滑带土内摩擦角地形坡度滑带土黏聚力淹没系数坡高滑体厚度坡面形态滑面倾角岸坡类型渗透特性地层岩性;利用支持向量机所建水库滑坡成灾动态诱因判别模型判别成功率达76.67%,该判别模型可在三峡库区滑坡防治工作中应用。
[Abstract]:In order to determine the internal relationship between the static background factor of reservoir landslide and the dynamic inducement of disaster formation, a discriminant model of dynamic inducement based on static background factor of reservoir landslide is established. The landslide of 100 reservoirs in Fengdu-Badong section of the three Gorges Reservoir area was analyzed and studied. Firstly, the static background factor system of reservoir landslide is established, then the correlation degree between the static background factor of reservoir landslide and the dynamic inducement of disaster is calculated by using the grey correlation theory. Finally, the multi-classification principle of support vector machine is used. Based on static background factor, the dynamic inducement model of landslide disaster in three Gorges Reservoir area is established. The results show that the correlation degree between the static background factors of reservoir landslide and the dynamic hazard inducement is in the order of large to small order: the slope of slope is slope of internal friction angle topographic gradient of slip zone, and the slope of high slip body thickness is slope of cohesive force of slip zone. Formation lithology of slope type permeability characteristics of slope with shape slip surface; The success rate of discriminating the dynamic inducement model of landslide disaster in reservoir built by support vector machine is 76.67 and this discriminant model can be used in landslide prevention and treatment of three Gorges reservoir area.
【作者单位】：贵州省地质矿产局一零三地质大队;化工部遵义地质工程勘察院;
【分类号】：P642.22;TV697.3

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