考虑梯级水库库容补偿和设计洪水不确定性的汛限水位动态控制域研究

发布时间：2019-01-16 06:24

【摘要】：汛限水位动态控制本质上是风险调度的范畴,其最主要的风险源来自于入库洪水的不确定性。不仅包括由于预报误差带来的实时调度风险,还包括由于设计阶段对于设计洪水不确定性考虑不周而存在的潜在防洪风险。本文针对梯级水库,提出了一种考虑库容补偿和设计洪水不确性的汛限水位动态控制域求解新方法。通过分析梯级水库库容补偿调度原理,定义了水库极限汛限水位上限值,并给出了考虑设计洪水不确定性的防洪风险定量表达式。以Copula函数为工具建立上游和区间天然来水的联合概率密度函数,求出下游遭遇某一设计洪水时,上游可能出现的洪水范围,从而得到考虑梯级水库调蓄作用的不确定性设计洪水。通过反复迭代计算最终得到兼顾防洪风险与兴利效益的汛限水位动态控制域。将该方法运用在考虑潘口库容补偿作用的黄龙滩汛限水位动态控制域计算中,并与同频率法和典型年法比较,得到以下结论:1)所提方法能通过挖掘历史洪水信息,为模拟梯级水库设计洪水不确定性提供参考信息;2)相对于同频率法和典型年法,所提方法推求的汛限水位动态控制域更加的安全;3)黄龙滩水库汛期运行水位可以从[240,247]m变为[240,248.21]m。可使汛期来水较多的2000年和来水较少的1994年分别增加发电量0.13和0.11×108k W·h。所提方法能充分考虑梯级水库库容补偿和设计洪水的不确定性,能得到不增加防洪风险的水库汛限水位动态控制域。
[Abstract]:The dynamic control of flood limit water level is essentially a category of risk dispatching, and its main risk source is the uncertainty of flood in reservoir. It includes not only the risk of real-time operation due to forecast error, but also the potential flood control risk due to inadequate consideration of design flood uncertainty in the design phase. In this paper, a new method to solve the dynamic control domain of flood limit water level considering reservoir capacity compensation and design flood uncertainty is proposed for cascade reservoirs. By analyzing the principle of reservoir capacity compensation and operation of cascade reservoirs, the upper limit of limited water level of reservoirs in limit flood season is defined, and the quantitative expression of flood control risk considering the uncertainty of design flood is given. Using Copula function as a tool, the joint probability density function of upstream and interval natural water is established, and the range of flood that may occur upstream when a design flood is encountered in the downstream is obtained. Thus, the uncertain design flood considering the regulating and storing action of cascade reservoir is obtained. Finally, the dynamic control region of flood limit water level is obtained by iterative calculation, which takes both flood control risk and benefit into account. This method is applied to the calculation of the dynamic control domain of the flood limit water level in Huanglongtan considering the compensation of Pankou reservoir capacity, and compared with the same frequency method and the typical age method, the following conclusions are obtained: 1) the proposed method can be used to excavate the historical flood information. It provides reference information for simulating the uncertainty of design flood of cascade reservoir. 2) compared with the same frequency method and typical age method, the proposed method is more secure in the dynamic control region of flood limit water level, and 3) the operating water level of Huanglongtan Reservoir can be changed from [240247] m to [240248.21] m in flood season. It can increase the power generation by 0.13 and 0.11 脳 10 ~ 8kW / h in 2000 and 1994, respectively. The proposed method can take full account of the reservoir capacity compensation of cascade reservoirs and the uncertainty of design flood, and can obtain the dynamic control region of flood limit water level of reservoirs without increasing flood risk.
【作者单位】：四川大学水利水电学院;中国水利水电科学研究院;
【基金】：国家“973”计划资助项目(2013CB036406) 国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2013BAB05B05)
【分类号】：TV697.13

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