乌东德库岸滑坡灾害风险性研究

发布时间：2019-01-26 09:12

【摘要】：我国西南地区自然条件恶劣，是地质灾害最严重的地区。随着西南水电工程的大规模开发，将改变现有地质条件的平衡现状、进而引发新的滑坡灾害发生。随着相关科学理论与技术的迅速发展，开展滑坡灾害风险性研究将为西南地区防灾减灾提供重要依据。目前，鉴于滑坡灾害孕育环境的多样性和隐蔽性，诱发条件的复杂性和随机性，滑坡风险性影响因子的定量评价尚在研究探讨之中；针对库岸滑坡，，库水位的时空变化对滑坡的稳定性有不同的影响，又将进一步加剧滑坡灾害风险的不确定性。针对以上问题，本论文以金沙江乌东德水电站库区库岸滑坡为研究背景，开展库岸滑坡风险性研究，取得了以下研究成果：（1）在资料搜集与整理、野外调查与分析基础上，分析了乌东德库区典型滑坡灾害基本特征及灾害发育分布特征，研究了库岸滑坡灾害成因机制。（2）建立了乌东德库区库岸滑坡灾害易发性、易损性评价指标体系、指标体系分级表，提出各指标定量化及标准化处理方法及针对库区单体滑坡危险性评价的评价方法体系。运用层次分析方法计算评价指标的权重，运用可拓学理论分别对库区进行了滑坡灾害的易发性、易损性评估及分区。（3）基于前人的半定量分析等研究成果的基础上，结合易发性和易损性分区特征，在GIS空间分析功能的平台下对库岸滑坡进行风险性评估及分区，提出风险评价结果划分为风险性高、风险性中等、风险性低、风险性极低4级。（4）基于离心机模型试验和数值模拟分析结果，研究了库水位变化诱发滑坡灾害机理，进而将库水位变化作为滑坡易发性的动态因子，研究受库水位升降影响、库岸滑坡失稳的风险性，实现了库岸滑坡灾害风险性动态区划。
[Abstract]:The natural condition of southwest China is very bad, and it is the most serious area of geological disaster. With the large-scale development of hydropower projects in southwest China, the balance of existing geological conditions will be changed and a new landslide disaster will occur. With the rapid development of relevant scientific theory and technology, the study of landslide hazard risk will provide an important basis for disaster prevention and mitigation in Southwest China. At present, in view of the diversity and concealment of the inoculation environment of landslide disaster and the complexity and randomness of induced conditions, the quantitative evaluation of the influencing factors of landslide risk is still under study. The temporal and spatial variation of reservoir water level has different effects on landslide stability, which will further aggravate the uncertainty of landslide disaster risk. In view of the above problems, this paper takes the landslide in the reservoir area of Wudongde Hydropower Station in Jinsha River as the research background, carries out the research on the risk of landslide in the reservoir bank, and obtains the following research results: (1) collecting and collating the data, On the basis of field investigation and analysis, this paper analyzes the basic characteristics of typical landslide disasters and their development and distribution in the reservoir area of Wudongde, and studies the mechanism of landslide disasters along the reservoir bank. (2) the evaluation index system of vulnerability and vulnerability of landslide in the reservoir bank of Wudongde reservoir area and the classification table of the index system are established. The quantitative and standardized treatment methods of each index and the evaluation method system of landslide risk assessment for single landslide in the reservoir area are put forward. The weight of the evaluation index is calculated by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and the vulnerability, vulnerability assessment and zoning of landslide disasters in the reservoir area are carried out by using extension theory. (3) based on the research results of semi-quantitative analysis, combined with the characteristics of vulnerability and vulnerability, the risk assessment and zoning of landslide in reservoir bank are carried out on the platform of GIS spatial analysis function. The results of risk assessment are classified as high risk, middle risk, low risk and very low risk. (4) based on the results of centrifuge model test and numerical simulation, the mechanism of landslide disaster induced by reservoir water level change is studied, and then the reservoir water level change is regarded as the dynamic factor of landslide vulnerability, and the influence of reservoir water level fluctuation is studied. The risk of landslide instability on the bank of reservoir is realized, and the dynamic regionalization of landslide hazard risk is realized.
【学位授予单位】：长江科学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV221.2

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