气候变化和人类活动对汀江径流量变化的贡献

发布时间：2019-03-09 16:03

【摘要】：基于汀江流域控制站(溪口站)1965—2012年日均径流量实测数据及长汀、上杭、永定气象站逐日降水量、逐日气温资料,采用年段均值比较、5a滑动、趋势线分析和累积距平等方法,分析流域近50年来的径流量序列,揭示径流量变化的趋势,判别径流量变化的突变年份,划分径流量变化的阶段.并应用改进后的累积量斜率变化率比较法定量估算了近50年来气候变化和人类活动对汀江径流量变化的贡献率.结果表明:(1)径流量总体呈现下降—上升—下降的波动,判别突变年份为1972、2001年,划分径流变化阶段为1965—1972年(A阶段)、1973—2001年(B阶段)、2002—2012年(C阶段);(2)与A阶段相比,B、C阶段气候变化对径流量变化的贡献率分别为65.1%、50.5%,而人类活动对径流量变化的贡献率为34.9%、49.5%,可见人类活动对径流量变化贡献日趋突出.
[Abstract]:Based on the daily mean runoff data from 1965 to 2012 and Changting, Shanghang and Yongding meteorological stations, daily precipitation and daily temperature data were measured at the Ting River Basin Control Station (Xikou Station). The annual mean value was compared and the annual mean value was compared for 5 years. Trend line analysis and cumulative distance equality method are used to analyze runoff series in the past 50 years, to reveal the trend of runoff change, to distinguish the abrupt year of runoff change and to divide the stages of runoff change. The contribution rate of climate change and human activities to the variation of Ting River runoff in the last 50 years is quantitatively estimated by using the improved comparison method of slope change rate of cumulant quantity. The results are as follows: (1) the total runoff fluctuates from decline to rise-decline, and the year of abrupt change is 1972. In 2001, runoff was divided into three stages: 1965-1972 (stage A), 1973-2001 (stage B) and 2002-2012 (stage C). (2) compared with stage A, the contribution rate of climate change to runoff in stage B and C was 65.1% and 50.5% respectively, while the contribution rate of human activities to runoff change was 34.9% and 49.5%, respectively. It can be seen that the contribution of human activities to the change of runoff is becoming more and more prominent.
【作者单位】：华南师范大学地理科学学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41471147)
【分类号】：P333.1;P467

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