基于CFS预报产品的水电站水库预泄决策方法
发布时间：2019-03-14 21:15
【摘要】：针对降雨预报不确定性带来的汛期预泄风险问题,提出基于CFS预报产品的水电站水库预泄决策方法。利用CFS历史预报数据,建立不同预见期特定预报降雨条件下的实际降雨和入库流量的概率分布,计算不同库水位和发电决策组合下的弃水风险率。在常规调度的基础上,根据CFS降雨预报信息,以弃水风险率为决策依据,以优化的弃水风险率阈值为预泄幅度的定量指标进行调度。实例研究表明,该方法简便易行,充分利用了降雨预报信息,在汛期可提供定量化预泄决策,兼顾了效益与风险,达到了减小弃水的同时增大发电量的目的。
[Abstract]:In order to solve the problem of flood season pre-discharge risk caused by uncertainty of rainfall forecast, a decision-making method for reservoir pre-discharge of hydropower station based on CFS forecast product is put forward. Based on the historical forecast data of CFS, the probability distribution of actual rainfall and inflow flow under different forecast periods is established, and the risk rate of abandoned water under the combination of different reservoir water level and power generation decision-making is calculated. On the basis of conventional scheduling, according to the CFS rainfall forecast information, the abandoned water risk rate is taken as the decision basis, and the optimized abandoned water risk threshold value is used as the quantitative index of the predischarge amplitude. The case study shows that the method is simple and easy to use, makes full use of rainfall forecast information, provides quantitative pre-discharge decision in flood season, takes into account both benefit and risk, and achieves the purpose of reducing abandoned water and increasing electricity generation.
【作者单位】： 大连理工大学水电与水信息研究所;锦州市气象局;丹东市气象局;
【基金】：国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)(2012AA050205) 国家自然科学基金项目(51109024)
【分类号】：TV697.1
，
本文编号：2440376
[Abstract]:In order to solve the problem of flood season pre-discharge risk caused by uncertainty of rainfall forecast, a decision-making method for reservoir pre-discharge of hydropower station based on CFS forecast product is put forward. Based on the historical forecast data of CFS, the probability distribution of actual rainfall and inflow flow under different forecast periods is established, and the risk rate of abandoned water under the combination of different reservoir water level and power generation decision-making is calculated. On the basis of conventional scheduling, according to the CFS rainfall forecast information, the abandoned water risk rate is taken as the decision basis, and the optimized abandoned water risk threshold value is used as the quantitative index of the predischarge amplitude. The case study shows that the method is simple and easy to use, makes full use of rainfall forecast information, provides quantitative pre-discharge decision in flood season, takes into account both benefit and risk, and achieves the purpose of reducing abandoned water and increasing electricity generation.
【作者单位】： 大连理工大学水电与水信息研究所;锦州市气象局;丹东市气象局;
【基金】：国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)(2012AA050205) 国家自然科学基金项目(51109024)
【分类号】：TV697.1
，
本文编号：2440376
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